Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:17:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.0
score
B2 0xb209…b744 sports 712 markets active 0h ago coverage 80d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$13,868 (+12%) realized +$13,918 · open −$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate59%411W / 290L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$167per market
Trades / day29.1pace
Fees−$1,527est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,048now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,229
7 days+$1,692
14 days+$6,976
30 days+$7,750
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$7,063
crypto 15% −$10
other 2% +$347
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 246 +51.0% +36.6% 55% 48% -5.6%
≤30d 543 +30.9% +18.5% 51% 46% -2.3%
≤90d 701 +22.5% +10.9% 59% 37% -3.7%
all 701 +22.5% +10.9% 59% 37% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.9% 37% -3.7%
10% ← realistic here +0.3% 34% -12.9%
15% -9.4% 31% -21.4%
20% -18.3% 27% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +7% → late +38% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$111 vs −$132 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$1,048
Realized+$13,918
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses411 / 290
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$1,527
Open positions8
Markets (closed)701 / 712
History coverage80d
Avg bet$167
Trades / day29.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 701 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Under 83¢ 81¢ $497 $489 −$8 (-2%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Bangladesh 11¢ 9¢ $407 $331 −$76 (-19%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 54¢ 68¢ $59 $74 +$16 (+27%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 71¢ 80¢ $57 $64 +$7 (+12%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 73¢ 100¢ $33 $45 +$12 (+37%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 25¢ 28¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+11%)
Rainbow Six Siege: Man eSports LFO vs Barbie Boys (BO1) - Asia Pacific League Oceania - Stage 1 Group Stage Man eSports LFO 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs Kinoa - Map 2 Winner Kinoa 23¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 269 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TDK (-3.5) vs Young Ninjas (+3.5) Jun 15 $2 +$1 +32%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $84 +$246 +292%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 15 $0 +$5 +1845%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 15 $1,304 +$739 +57%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 15 $128 +$37 +29%
Will Goiás EC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +36%
Exact Score: Grêmio Novorizontino 0 - 0 Clube Náutico Capibaribe? Jun 14 $0 $0 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Rainbow Six Siege: INTZ vs FURIA Esports (BO1) - South America League Jun 14 $109 +$20 +18%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $154 +$62 +40%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $41 +$30 +73%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $272 −$73 -27%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $259 −$99 -38%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 14 $3 +$2 +73%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4 +$2 +65%
Spread: CD Concepción (-2.5) Jun 14 $7 +$1 +18%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $74 +$42 +57%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Corners Jun 14 $0 $0 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
UnionTouargaSports leading at halftime? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +21%
Raja Club Athletic vs. UnionTouargaSports: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $989 +$988 +100%
Germany to win the second half? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $336 −$329 -98%
Stroemsgodset IF vs. Raufoss IL: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $71 +$29 +41%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - MPL Ind Jun 14 $3 +$7 +238%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 Jun 14 $20 +$19 +97%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $14 +$1 +7%
T20 Blast, League 2, Women: Sussex Sharks vs Gloucestershire Jun 14 $19 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $481 −$473 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $38 −$38 -98%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +197%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $400 +$800 +200%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $875 +$540 +62%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $551 +$426 +77%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $410 +$256 +62%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $165 +$98 +60%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $174 +$118 +68%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $129 +$287 +223%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 14 $351 +$38 +11%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $11 +$1 +6%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $6 +$14 +220%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $290 +$84 +29%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $802 +$422 +53%
CSD Colo-Colo vs. CD Cobresal: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$5 +250%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh SELL Bangladesh 9¢ $6 11m
Rainbow Six Siege: Man eSports LFO vs Barbie Boys (BO1) - Asia Pacific BUY Man eSports LFO 1¢ $1 21m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 12¢ $15 41m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $5 44m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $3 48m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $4 48m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $5 48m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $6 48m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $7 48m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $9 48m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $3 48m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 12¢ $4 50m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 12¢ $1 50m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 12¢ $3 50m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 12¢ $3 50m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 12¢ $172 53m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 11¢ $5 58m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 12¢ $36 58m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 11¢ $16 59m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 10¢ $109 59m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 10¢ $14 59m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 10¢ $47 59m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 82¢ $82 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 83¢ $417 1h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TDK (-3.5) vs Young Ninjas (+3.5) SELL Young Ninjas 49¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner SELL Young Ninjas 49¢ $330 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner BUY Young Ninjas 12¢ $84 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 5¢ $0 8h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 3.5 Corners SELL Under 70¢ $46 9h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 3.5 Corners SELL Under 70¢ $4 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,048.39 · official $1,047.65 (match) · 2677 history records