trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | -1.3% | -10.7% | 50% | 0% | -11.7% |
| ≤30d | 15 | +11.7% | +1.1% | 67% | 20% | -9.6% |
| ≤90d | 17 | +4.6% | -5.4% | 65% | 18% | -9.9% |
| all | 18 | -1.2% | -10.7% | 61% | 17% | -10.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.7% | 17% | -10.2% |
| 10% | -19.2% | 17% | -18.8% |
| 15% | -27.0% | 11% | -26.7% |
| 20% | -34.2% | 6% | -33.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 83¢ | 82¢ | $92 | $92 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 95¢ | 95¢ | $20 | $20 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | Jun 27 | $51 | −$1 | -2% |
| Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Jun 27 | $79 | −$6 | -7% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | Jun 25 | $18 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Jun 25 | $26 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats | Jun 25 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? | Jun 25 | $56 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | Jun 14 | $2 | +$1 | +35% |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 14 | $13 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Jun 14 | $25 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? | May 30 | $47 | −$4 | -9% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | May 30 | $2 | $0 | -10% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? | May 30 | $5 | +$2 | +46% |
| Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | May 30 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Abstract FDV above $3B one day after launch? | May 30 | $4 | $0 | +9% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | May 30 | $5 | +$5 | +104% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 06 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch? | May 06 | $4 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? | Feb 28 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |