Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:30:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb203…f8b0 sports 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$24 (+1%) realized +$29 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate97%37W / 1L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$25
other 2% −$8
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +0.3% -9.3% 97% 5% -8.4%
≤30d 38 +0.3% -9.3% 97% 5% -8.4%
≤90d 38 +0.3% -9.3% 97% 5% -8.4%
all 38 +0.3% -9.3% 97% 5% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 5% -8.4%
10% -18.0% 3% -17.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$10 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.27 per $1 lost it wins $3.27
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized+$29
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses37 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage5d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Germany 99¢ 97¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Germany 97¢ 85¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ shots Jun 20 $18 +$2 +12%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $11 $0 +1%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 20 $100 +$2 +2%
Spread: Paraguay (-2.5) Jun 20 $116 +$2 +2%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $10 +$1 +8%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 20 $60 $0 +1%
Spread: Morocco (-4.5) Jun 20 $60 +$1 +1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $4 $0 +0%
Spread: Australia (-2.5) Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 19 $20 +$1 +5%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) Jun 19 $80 +$1 +2%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 19 $40 +$3 +7%
Spread: Qatar (-2.5) Jun 19 $44 $0 +0%
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) Jun 19 $70 +$1 +2%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $4 $0 +7%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 18 $40 +$1 +3%
Spread: South Africa (-2.5) Jun 18 $50 +$1 +1%
Spread: South Africa (-4.5) Jun 18 $66 $0 +0%
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) Jun 18 $70 +$1 +2%
Spread: Uzbekistan (-2.5) Jun 18 $44 $0 +0%
Spread: Panama (-2.5) Jun 18 $50 +$2 +3%
Spread: Panama (-3.5) Jun 18 $60 $0 +0%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 17 $110 +$1 +1%
Spread: Jordan (-3.5) Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
Spread: Jordan (-2.5) Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Spread: Algeria (-2.5) Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 +$2 +3%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $6 $0 +5%
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 +$1 +4%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $15 +$5 +31%
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5) Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Chris Wood: 2+ assists Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Germany 97¢ $30 1h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Germany 99¢ $80 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 99¢ $11 3h
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ shots BUY Yes 89¢ $18 4h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 98¢ $100 7h
Spread: Paraguay (-2.5) BUY Türkiye 98¢ $116 18h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $10 19h
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) BUY Morocco 99¢ $60 23h
Spread: Morocco (-4.5) BUY Scotland 99¢ $60 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 24h
Spread: Australia (-2.5) BUY United States 100¢ $100 31h
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY United States 95¢ $20 31h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 100¢ $10 41h
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) BUY Mexico 98¢ $80 44h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Mexico 93¢ $40 44h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 93¢ $4 46h
Spread: Qatar (-2.5) BUY Canada 100¢ $44 2d
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) BUY Canada 98¢ $70 2d
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 97¢ $40 2d
Spread: South Africa (-4.5) BUY Czechia 100¢ $66 2d
Spread: South Africa (-2.5) BUY Czechia 99¢ $50 2d
Spread: Uzbekistan (-2.5) BUY Colombia 100¢ $44 2d
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) BUY Colombia 98¢ $70 2d
Spread: Panama (-3.5) BUY Ghana 100¢ $60 2d
Spread: Panama (-2.5) BUY Ghana 97¢ $50 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 2d
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) BUY England 99¢ $50 3d
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) BUY England 99¢ $50 3d
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) BUY Portugal 99¢ $60 3d
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) BUY Portugal 99¢ $50 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.81 · official $104.81 (match) · 79 history records