Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:28:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B1 0xb1fe…423a world 494 markets active 3h ago coverage 114d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 114d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,616 (+3%) realized +$2,788 · open −$172
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate42%198W / 268L
Whale WR51%big bets
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$195per market
Trades / day28.2pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$2,316now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$235
14 days−$734
30 days−$7,509
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$450
finance 21% +$732
other 19% +$586
politics 6% −$600
tech 5% −$1,170
economics 1% +$592
sports 1% −$112
weather 0% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +21.5% +9.9% 40% 40% -26.5%
≤30d 170 -40.0% -45.7% 24% 21% -31.2%
≤90d 390 -7.2% -16.0% 41% 32% -9.8%
all 466 +1.3% -8.3% 42% 33% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 33% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 24% -17.8%
15% -25.1% 17% -25.8%
20% -32.4% 14% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 51% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +23% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$66 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$2,316
Realized+$2,788
Unrealized−$172
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses198 / 268
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions28
Markets (closed)466 / 494
History coverage114d ⚠
Avg bet$195
Trades / day28.2
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 466 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? No 13¢ 16¢ $474 $604 +$130 (+27%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 34¢ 92¢ $140 $380 +$239 (+170%)
Will Claude go down 12+ times in June? No 90¢ 97¢ $330 $356 +$26 (+8%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? No 22¢ 22¢ $187 $187 +$0 (+0%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $175 $178 +$2 (+1%)
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 5¢ 6¢ $120 $125 +$5 (+4%)
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? No 75¢ 88¢ $75 $88 +$14 (+18%)
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 10¢ 13¢ $60 $78 +$18 (+30%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $162 $77 −$85 (-53%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $70 $76 +$6 (+8%)
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 23¢ 20¢ $46 $41 −$5 (-11%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? Yes 20¢ 2¢ $227 $28 −$200 (-88%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No 47¢ 46¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? No 8¢ 9¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+14%)
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+35%)
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28? No 21¢ 2¢ $100 $10 −$90 (-90%)
Will Cambria launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 7¢ 8¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+9%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $64 $7 −$57 (-89%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $137 $4 −$133 (-97%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 3¢ 1¢ $13 $4 −$9 (-71%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $3 −$1 (-30%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 16¢ 78¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+395%)
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 26¢ 2¢ $26 $2 −$24 (-92%)
Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $9 $2 −$8 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 25 $282 +$47 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $58 −$57 -99%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? Jun 23 $52 +$37 +70%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 22 $33 −$13 -41%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $37 +$56 +152%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $388 −$262 -67%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 19 $180 −$145 -81%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 19 $28 +$119 +422%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $86 −$4 -5%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30? Jun 18 $110 −$28 -25%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $21 +$19 +91%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 18 $223 −$223 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $118 −$52 -44%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $415 +$70 +17%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $25 +$49 +198%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $221 −$178 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $221 −$159 -72%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $17 −$6 -33%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $108 −$104 -96%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $96 +$42 +43%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $554 +$347 +63%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $426 −$146 -34%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $128 −$22 -17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 13 $528 −$91 -17%
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $13 −$13 -96%
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 Jun 11 $325 −$104 -32%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 11 $221 −$215 -97%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $40 +$61 +152%
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1480+? Jun 11 $203 +$107 +53%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $201 +$41 +20%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at le Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 11 $141 −$3 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $170 +$59 +35%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $100 +$33 +33%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 10 $100 −$15 -15%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $100 +$3 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 9? Jun 09 $18 −$12 -65%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 09 $33 +$36 +108%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 9? Jun 09 $63 −$61 -96%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 09 $70 +$28 +41%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 09 $124 −$14 -12%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $55 −$18 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $156 +$120 +77%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $272 −$26 -10%
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 09 $195 −$70 -36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $39 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $88 14h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $99 14h
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? BUY No 8¢ $16 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $15 15h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 15h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $48 15h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 15h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $112 15h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 15h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY No 75¢ $75 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 12¢ $180 17h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 27h
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-Ju BUY No 8¢ $16 36h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $16 38h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $8 38h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $6 39h
Will Cambria launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $7 39h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $29 39h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $19 40h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $9 41h
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-Ju SELL No 13¢ $33 42h
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-Ju SELL No 13¢ $3 42h
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 42h
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-Ju BUY No 20¢ $3 46h
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-Ju BUY No 20¢ $1 47h
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-Ju BUY No 20¢ $1 47h
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-Ju BUY No 20¢ $1 47h
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-Ju BUY No 20¢ $1 47h
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-Ju BUY No 20¢ $1 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,316.12 · official $2,315.58 (match) · 3500 history records