trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | -3.7% | -12.9% | 0% | 0% | -10.4% |
| ≤30d | 15 | -1.2% | -10.6% | 20% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤90d | 15 | -1.2% | -10.6% | 20% | 0% | -9.7% |
| all | 23 | -0.7% | -10.1% | 35% | 0% | -9.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.1% | 0% | -9.7% |
| 10% | -18.7% | 0% | -18.3% |
| 15% | -26.6% | 0% | -26.2% |
| 20% | -33.8% | 0% | -33.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | No | 86¢ | 86¢ | $31 | $31 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | No | 41¢ | 40¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? | Jun 21 | $1 | $0 | -17% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 20 | $37 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 19 | $28 | $0 | -1% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | Jun 19 | $20 | −$1 | -4% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 18 | $32 | $0 | -0% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 18 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 15 | $72 | −$1 | -2% |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 15 | $67 | $0 | -0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 14 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 14 | $35 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 13 | $36 | $0 | -1% |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | Jun 10 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Jun 09 | $33 | +$2 | +7% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 9? | Jun 09 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | Jun 08 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Meta buy TikTok? | Jun 26 | $9 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Jun 05 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? | May 06 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? | Mar 31 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Google have the top AI model on March 31? | Mar 27 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? | Mar 24 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 14-21? | Mar 15 | $12 | $0 | -1% |