Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:09:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B1 0xb1fd…4434 crypto 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$25 (+3%) realized +$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +15.7% +4.6% 54% 54% -6.2%
≤30d 13 +15.7% +4.6% 54% 54% -6.2%
≤90d 13 +15.7% +4.6% 54% 54% -6.2%
all 13 +15.7% +4.6% 54% 54% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.6% 54% -6.2%
10% -5.4% 54% -15.2%
15% -14.5% 54% -23.4%
20% -22.9% 46% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$56 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 24 $72 −$71 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 24 $42 +$60 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 24 $49 +$51 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 24 $64 +$41 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 24 $89 −$88 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 24 $58 +$52 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 24 $56 −$54 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 24 $64 +$39 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 24 $32 +$93 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 24 $63 −$61 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 24 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 24 $75 +$28 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$4 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $72 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $42 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $89 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $49 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $64 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $75 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.00 · official $100.00 (match) · 20 history records