Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:28:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb1fd…b501 other 52 markets active 20h ago coverage 614d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate12%6W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 73% −$14
other 17% +$8
tech 3% $0
sports 2% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -6.4% -15.3% 6% 0% -12.7%
≤90d 40 +3.0% -6.8% 12% 5% -9.0%
all 51 +1.7% -8.0% 12% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 4% -9.6%
10% -16.8% 4% -18.3%
15% -24.8% 4% -26.2%
20% -32.2% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 94% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×5.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

614d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses6 / 45
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage614d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $45 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $8 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $16 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $16 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $10 $0 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $14 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $14 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 01 $34 $0 +0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 30 $15 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $12 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $79 $0 -0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals May 18 $9 +$9 +93%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 13 $73 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $67 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $67 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $7 +$10 +129%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $63 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $65 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $62 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $63 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 02 $186 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 02 $62 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $64 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $62 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $61 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $59 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 21 $61 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $64 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $66 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $61 $0 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? Apr 18 $8 $0 -0%
Based FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 18 $7 $0 +1%
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 18 $14 $0 +3%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 06 $26 +$1 +2%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $7 $0 -3%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 14 $1 $0 -25%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 03 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $7 $0 -4%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $28 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 11 $162 −$2 -1%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 31 $691 −$6 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 28 $1,433 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $8 19h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $8 21h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $45 25h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $16 37h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 39h
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $16 5d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $16 5d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $16 6d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $16 6d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 7d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 7d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $14 8d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 8d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 47¢ $8 8d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $14 9d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 9d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 12d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 12d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $18 13d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $18 13d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $14 16d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $14 16d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $15 18d
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 18d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $13 24d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $13 24d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $34 25d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $12 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.42 · official $44.42 (match) · 322 history records