Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:37:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb1fb…d6d8 other 116 markets active 1h ago coverage 655d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,925 (-6%) realized −$2,961 · open +$36
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate52%48W / 44L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$419per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$2,508now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1,480
14 days−$1,480
30 days−$1,493
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$321
politics 16% +$72
economics 14% −$1,040
sports 10% −$1,427
crypto 6% −$146
finance 4% +$14
world 0% −$62
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-28.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -72.3% -74.9% 0% 0% -74.9%
≤30d 4 -43.6% -49.0% 25% 0% -33.6%
≤90d 21 +0.1% -9.4% 57% 19% -17.3%
all 92 -21.0% -28.5% 52% 15% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.5% 15% -16.0%
10% -35.3% 10% -24.0%
15% -41.6% 7% -31.4%
20% -47.3% 7% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$109 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

655d coverage
Net worth$2,508
Realized−$2,961
Unrealized+$36
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses48 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions24
Markets (closed)92 / 116
History coverage655d
Avg bet$419
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 82¢ $2,187 $2,188 +$1 (+0%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $37 $52 +$14 (+39%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $31 $50 +$19 (+63%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $25 $28 +$3 (+14%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $29 $28 −$1 (-4%)
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Yes $30 $23 −$7 (-24%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $12 $22 +$10 (+88%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $17 $22 +$5 (+32%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6 $13 +$7 (+125%)
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $9 $10 +$2 (+17%)
Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027? Yes $3 $9 +$7 (+251%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8 $7 −$1 (-12%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $6 −$4 (-35%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $7 $6 −$0 (-7%)
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes $5 $6 +$1 (+23%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $6 +$0 (+10%)
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? Yes $8 $6 −$2 (-31%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8 $5 −$3 (-38%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $14 $4 −$10 (-68%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $9 $4 −$4 (-50%)
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-45%)
Will Russia enter Sumy by June 30? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-57%)
Macron out by June 30, 2026? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2,048 −$1,480 -72%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $657 −$15 -2%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $2,906 +$2 +0%
Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by May 31, 2026? May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? May 12 $840 $0 -0%
MegaETH FDV above $600M one day after launch? May 04 $1 $0 +2%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 01 $257 −$257 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch? Apr 30 $490 +$9 +2%
MegaETH FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 30 $57 +$3 +5%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Apr 27 $905 −$5 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 24 $43 $0 +0%
USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 21 $151 +$32 +22%
Trump out as President before 2027? Apr 10 $7,452 +$47 +1%
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 08 $25 +$22 +88%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $30 +$70 +233%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 01 $6 +$13 +216%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? Mar 30 $1,394 +$19 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? Mar 29 $10 −$10 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 27? Mar 29 $3 −$3 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch? Mar 29 $468 +$31 +7%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 19 $292 −$292 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 18 $280 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 17 $78 −$3 -4%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 07 $1,948 +$75 +4%
Will the Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP) win the 2026 South Korean local Feb 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Aztec FDV above $300M one day after launch? Feb 14 $97 +$3 +3%
Based FDV above $200M one day after launch? Feb 11 $102 +$135 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 1PM ET Feb 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Over $1.5M committed to the Makina public sale? Feb 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Feb 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6AM ET Feb 11 $24 −$9 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 12PM ET Feb 11 $4 −$2 -43%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win by less than 130 seats? Feb 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 3AM ET Feb 11 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novemb Feb 11 $2 −$2 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Feb 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Big Game: Octopus? Feb 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5AM ET Feb 11 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 6AM ET Feb 11 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 7AM ET Feb 11 $114 −$114 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 9AM ET Feb 11 $172 +$4 +2%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after December 2025 meetin Feb 11 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Feb 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 11 $951 −$951 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 11 $1,672 −$1,012 -60%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Feb 08 $78 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $150 −$150 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 26 $1,186 +$314 +26%
Will ETHGAS launch a token by March 31, 2026? Jan 25 $95 +$11 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 82¢ $567 34m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 82¢ $243 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 82¢ $243 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 82¢ $824 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $18 21h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $325 21h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $311 21h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $4 21h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $4 21h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $46 21h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $13 21h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $4 21h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $4 21h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $66 21h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $128 21h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $53 21h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $3,098 21h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 5d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 19¢ $19 5d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 19¢ $55 5d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 19¢ $106 5d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 19¢ $11 5d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 38¢ $118 7d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 38¢ $149 7d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 38¢ $9 7d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 38¢ $50 7d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 38¢ $20 7d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 38¢ $10 7d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 38¢ $14 7d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 38¢ $50 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,507.67 · official $2,507.67 (match) · 795 history records