Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:56:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb1fa…1a14 crypto 112 markets active 5d ago coverage 130d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 130d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$34,920 (-6%) realized −$12,343 · open −$22,577
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate16%16W / 85L
Whale WR27%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,437per market
Trades / day26.0pace
Fees−$79est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$13,155now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 130d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 82% −$44,076
finance 7% −$28,701
other 7% −$33,801
crypto 4% −$12,415
sports 0% +$114
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 +7.3% -3.0% 25% 12% -59.7%
≤90d 81 -67.4% -70.5% 12% 7% -18.8%
all 101 -21.7% -29.2% 16% 11% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.2% 11% -19.1%
10% -36.0% 10% -26.9%
15% ← realistic here -42.1% 5% -33.9%
20% -47.8% 3% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 86% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 27% (≥$1,594) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +19% → late -61% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
25.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6,605 vs −$2,376 · ×2.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$13,155
Realized−$12,343
Unrealized−$22,577
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses16 / 85
Whale WR (big bets)27%
Est. fees paid−$79
Open positions11
Markets (closed)101 / 112
History coverage130d ⚠
Avg bet$5,437
Trades / day26.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 21¢ 12¢ $12,064 $7,187 −$4,877 (-40%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $22,830 $5,271 −$17,559 (-77%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $200 $250 +$50 (+25%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $220 $130 −$90 (-41%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $118 +$18 (+18%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $96 $87 −$9 (-9%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $75 −$25 (-25%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $91 $31 −$60 (-65%)
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 4¢ 0¢ $17 $2 −$15 (-88%)
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 5¢ 0¢ $12 $1 −$10 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 09 $4 −$1 -13%
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 09 $3 $0 -12%
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 09 $1 $0 -10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $2,000 +$144 +7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 31 $24,896 −$23,474 -94%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 22 $1,123 −$1,083 -96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 22 $2,393 −$2,319 -97%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 22 $1,000 +$3,860 +386%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 17 $57 −$57 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 17 $673 −$673 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 05 $9,224 −$9,224 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? May 05 $13,862 −$4,671 -34%
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, May 02 $318 −$291 -92%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? May 01 $7,616 −$7,256 -95%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $690 on May 1? May 01 $247 −$247 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 2? May 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 2? May 01 $3 −$3 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 2? May 01 $0 $0 -93%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 27-May 3? May 01 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 April 27-May 3? May 01 $5 −$5 -93%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 April 27-May 3? May 01 $30 −$28 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 April 27-May 3? May 01 $11 −$10 -94%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 30 $17,181 −$15,606 -91%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 28 $16,971 −$16,719 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 27 $171 −$142 -83%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 27 $1,961 −$1,717 -88%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, Apr 27 $47 −$47 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 27 $383 −$119 -31%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? Apr 27 $277 −$257 -93%
Will UK strike Iran by April 30? Apr 27 $281 −$261 -93%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 27 $26 −$24 -92%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 27 $107 −$88 -82%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 27 $3,275 −$3,196 -98%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? Apr 27 $41,858 −$41,636 -100%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? Apr 20 $8,107 −$8,085 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10? Apr 20 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? Apr 20 $6,765 −$6,750 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 12? Apr 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 20 $15,423 −$13,679 -89%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 19 $2,770 −$1,663 -60%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 18 $2,223 −$282 -13%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? Apr 18 $2,333 −$127 -6%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 12 $2,521 +$114 +4%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026? Apr 11 $26 −$23 -86%
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026? Apr 07 $4 +$1 +26%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 07 $332 +$83 +25%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? Apr 07 $2,956 +$34 +1%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, Apr 07 $1,204 −$1,204 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $146,698 +$41,744 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $249 5d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $380 5d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 5d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 5d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 5d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $12 5d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 5d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 5d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $3,800 5d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 5d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 5d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $48 5d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $72 5d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 5d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $256 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 5d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $20 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 5d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 5d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 5d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 5d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 5d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 5d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 5d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $26 5d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $950 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,155.14 · official $13,155.26 (match) · 3500 history records