Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:51:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
B1 0xb1f9…8e63 crypto 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$50 (+10%) realized +$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate88%7W / 1L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +12.5% +1.8% 88% 62% -0.8%
≤30d 8 +12.5% +1.8% 88% 62% -0.8%
≤90d 8 +12.5% +1.8% 88% 62% -0.8%
all 8 +12.5% +1.8% 88% 62% -0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.8% 62% -0.8%
10% -8.0% 25% -10.3%
15% -16.9% 12% -18.9%
20% -25.0% 12% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$14 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.67 per $1 lost it wins $4.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses7 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 23 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 23 $102 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 23 $51 −$14 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 23 $51 +$7 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 23 $70 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 23 $15 +$8 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 18 history records