Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:54:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B1 0xb1f9…2ce9 crypto 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate94%17W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day25.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +4.3% -5.7% 94% 6% -6.0%
≤30d 18 +4.3% -5.7% 94% 6% -6.0%
≤90d 18 +4.3% -5.7% 94% 6% -6.0%
all 18 +4.3% -5.7% 94% 6% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.7% 6% -6.0%
10% ← realistic here -14.7% 0% -15.0%
15% -22.9% 0% -23.2%
20% -30.5% 0% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 41% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×14.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×251.03 per $1 lost it wins $251.03
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses17 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 23 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 23 $50 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 23 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 23 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 23 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $52 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 42 history records