Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:36:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B1 0xb1f8…680c crypto 1633 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 110d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$487 (+1%) realized +$487 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate91%1486W / 147L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day17.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$25
14 days+$83
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$350
sports 0% +$3
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 121 +0.2% -9.4% 76% 23% -8.4%
≤30d 380 +0.1% -9.5% 87% 9% -9.5%
≤90d 1317 +0.7% -8.9% 91% 5% -9.0%
all 1633 +0.8% -8.8% 91% 5% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 5% -8.9%
10% -17.5% 2% -17.6%
15% -25.5% 2% -25.6%
20% -32.8% 1% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$12 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$487
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses1486 / 147
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1633 / 1633
History coverage110d ⚠
Avg bet$32
Trades / day17.3
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1633 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $18 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 21 $19 −$6 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 21 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$5 +93%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $27 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 20 $32 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $27 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $24 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $29 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $18 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $17 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 20 $27 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $29 −$10 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $9 +$6 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$30 +574%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 19 $18 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 19 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $25 −$20 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $16 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 19 $16 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 19 $22 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $18 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $13 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $19 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $19 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $31 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 18h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 71¢ $1 19h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $27 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $32 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $19 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $27 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $19 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $24 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $29 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $18 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $17 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $27 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $19 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $29 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records