Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:26:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb1f7…6d66 politics 250 markets active 0h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate23%56W / 189L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$6
other 33% −$6
sports 12% −$6
crypto 5% +$2
world 4% −$2
economics 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.6% -10.0% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 72 -0.5% -10.0% 4% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 157 -0.2% -9.7% 14% 0% -9.9%
all 245 -1.3% -10.7% 23% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 0% -10.0%
10% -19.3% 0% -18.6%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses56 / 189
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)245 / 250
History coverage140d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 245 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 98¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 97¢ 98¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? No 51¢ 50¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $15 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $27 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $22 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $19 −$1 -3%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $112 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $50 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $30 $0 -2%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $44 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $41 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $8 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $58 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $5 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $24 $0 -0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 02 $31 −$1 -4%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 27 $11 $0 -3%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 27 $26 $0 -1%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $34 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $56 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $11 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $35 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 26 $18 −$1 -6%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $22 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 25 $15 $0 -2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? May 25 $15 $0 -1%
Trump out as President by June 30? May 25 $14 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $22 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $15 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $43 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 25 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 25 $22 $0 -2%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $35 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $30 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $41 $0 -1%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $25 $0 -0%
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? May 24 $39 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $27 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $31 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $30 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $24 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? May 24 $38 $0 -0%
Trump out as President before 2027? May 24 $23 $0 -1%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $15 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $26 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $15 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $47 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 23 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $7 2m
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $5 59m
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $9 3h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $9 3h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 3h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 4h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $7 5h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $2 6h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $9 9h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 9h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 9h
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $7 10h
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1 11h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $10 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $10 12d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $9 13d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $9 13d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $6 13d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $6 13d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $8 13d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $8 13d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $6 13d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $6 13d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $5 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.98 · official $38.98 (match) · 1279 history records