Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:03:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B1 0xb1f6…5e03 tech 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 23d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$381 (-31%) realized −$381 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$173per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days−$416
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 67% −$441
other 23% +$13
crypto 10% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.5% -7.3% 100% 0% -7.1%
≤30d 7 -9.9% -18.4% 71% 14% -40.6%
≤90d 7 -9.9% -18.4% 71% 14% -40.6%
all 7 -9.9% -18.4% 71% 14% -40.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 14% -40.6%
10% -26.2% 0% -46.3%
15% -33.4% 0% -51.5%
20% -39.9% 0% -56.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% too few recent
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$224 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$381
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage23d
Avg bet$173
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 19 $147 +$1 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 17 $179 +$7 +4%
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $443 −$443 -100%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 31 $133 +$11 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 30? May 31 $59 +$11 +18%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 30, 2026? May 30 $184 −$5 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 27? May 28 $65 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 18 history records