Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:53:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B1 0xb1f5…e4c2 sports 228 markets active 2h ago coverage 359d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10,211 (-8%) realized −$10,211 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%107W / 121L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$527per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$264est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$340
7 days+$709
14 days+$709
30 days−$1,363
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$2,395
other 34% −$7,714
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +93.2% +74.8% 62% 62% +46.5%
≤30d 17 +12.3% +1.6% 41% 41% -39.9%
≤90d 97 -6.7% -15.6% 49% 46% -9.9%
all 228 -6.6% -15.5% 47% 46% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 46% -17.0%
10% -23.5% 42% -25.0%
15% -30.9% 38% -32.2%
20% -37.7% 29% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$360 vs −$402 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

359d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10,211
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses107 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$264
Open positions0
Markets (closed)228 / 228
History coverage359d
Avg bet$527
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 228 Trades
no open positions (114 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $152 +$171 +112%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $102 −$51 -50%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $50 +$111 +222%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $20 +$97 +474%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $152 +$111 +73%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $102 −$100 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai Jun 27 $132 −$130 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $438 +$499 +114%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $989 −$980 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $245 −$242 -98%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 11 $231 +$148 +64%
Will Diana Shnaider win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 03 $264 −$258 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $304 −$300 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $174 −$170 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 01 $236 −$234 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $275 −$270 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic May 31 $237 +$234 +99%
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Naomi Osaka May 30 $326 −$320 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 30 $102 +$111 +109%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $101 −$100 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Solana Sierra vs Sorana Cirstea May 29 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $51 +$77 +152%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Katie Volynets May 27 $184 −$180 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier May 27 $101 +$80 +79%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Lois Boisson May 26 $253 +$144 +57%
Roland Garros WTA: Linda Noskova vs Maria Sakkari May 26 $213 −$210 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Emma Raducanu vs Solana Sierra May 25 $303 +$166 +55%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Emma Navarro vs Ann Li May 24 $102 +$136 +134%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $112 −$110 -98%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Emma Navarro vs Iva Jovic May 20 $429 −$420 -98%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $132 −$130 -99%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 19 $202 +$115 +57%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $303 +$180 +60%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Iga Swiatek vs Elina Svitolina May 15 $102 +$352 +344%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Sorana Cirstea vs Coco Gauff May 15 $252 +$110 +44%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Mirra Andreeva May 14 $102 +$4 +4%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 12 $246 +$134 +55%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $142 +$104 +73%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $177 −$175 -99%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 10 $104 +$71 +68%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sorana Cirstea May 09 $195 −$191 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 08 $131 +$63 +48%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Anastasia Potapova vs Karolina Muchova May 07 $210 −$208 -99%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga May 07 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $692 +$430 +62%
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 05 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-03? May 05 $103 +$4 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Japan 26¢ $51 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 50¢ $102 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 23h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY 30¢ $50 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 57¢ $152 43h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 35¢ $102 45h
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai BUY Michel Pereira 16¢ $31 2d
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai BUY Michel Pereira 52¢ $101 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 46¢ $437 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 46¢ $1 3d
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 71¢ $989 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $245 15d
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Karolina Pliskova 56¢ $51 19d
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Karolina Pliskova 59¢ $101 19d
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Karolina Pliskova 65¢ $80 19d
Will Diana Shnaider win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY Yes 23¢ $264 25d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 54¢ $304 27d
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk BUY Elina Svitolina 20¢ $20 27d
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk BUY Elina Svitolina 27¢ $51 27d
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk BUY Elina Svitolina 29¢ $102 27d
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Anastasia Potapova 79¢ $236 28d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca BUY Casper Ruud 18¢ $20 28d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca BUY Casper Ruud 28¢ $31 28d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca BUY Casper Ruud 27¢ $51 28d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca BUY Casper Ruud 31¢ $31 28d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca BUY Casper Ruud 38¢ $102 29d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca BUY Casper Ruud 40¢ $41 29d
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic BUY Elina Svitolina 47¢ $102 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 612 history records