trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -22.5% | -29.9% | 40% | 0% | -19.2% |
| ≤30d | 8 | -24.7% | -31.8% | 25% | 0% | -22.7% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -24.7% | -31.8% | 25% | 0% | -22.7% |
| all | 15 | -35.2% | -41.4% | 13% | 0% | -38.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -41.4% | 0% | -38.8% |
| 10% | -47.0% | 0% | -44.6% |
| 15% | -52.1% | 0% | -50.0% |
| 20% | -56.8% | 0% | -54.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? | No | 30¢ | 31¢ | $21 | $22 | +$1 (+3%) |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? | No | 72¢ | 84¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+17%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i | Jun 23 | $44 | −$3 | -7% |
| Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? | Jun 23 | $6 | −$1 | -14% |
| Will Adele perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? | Jun 23 | $10 | −$9 | -96% |
| Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? | Jun 22 | $21 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? | Jun 20 | $33 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? | Jun 13 | $15 | −$2 | -13% |
| Will Brian Bjelde be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' | Jun 11 | $10 | −$2 | -19% |
| Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut | Jun 10 | $11 | −$6 | -52% |
| Will Tim Kaine vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appro | Mar 23 | $43 | −$38 | -88% |
| Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 6? | Mar 11 | $3 | $0 | -5% |
| Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on March 7? | Mar 11 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Trump post "Poll" on Truth Social this week? (March 8) | Mar 11 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C or higher on Marc | Mar 05 | $2 | $0 | -9% |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 60°F or higher on March 7? | Mar 05 | $2 | $0 | -20% |
| Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 6? | Mar 05 | $2 | $0 | -8% |