Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:38:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

B1 0xb1f2…a594 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$63 (+10%) realized +$70 · open −$7

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip

Net edge-1%after slip

Net WR75%break-even

Win rate75%3W / 1L

Drawdown7%max

Avg bet$102per market

Trades / day3.8pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$351now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +75%

net ROI/market (all)+3.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+14.3%	+3.4%	75%	75%	+15.8%
≤30d	4	+14.3%	+3.4%	75%	75%	+15.8%
≤90d	4	+14.3%	+3.4%	75%	75%	+15.8%
all	4	+14.3%	+3.4%	75%	75%	+15.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.8 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+3.4%	75%	+15.8%
10%	-6.5%	50%	+4.8%
15%	-15.5%	50%	-5.4%
20%	-23.8%	50%	-14.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 59% · top 2 93% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +28% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +14% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$25 vs −$5 · ×4.81 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×14.44 per $1 lost it wins $14.44

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$351

Realized+$70

Unrealized−$7

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses3 / 1

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)4 / 6

History coverage2d

Avg bet$102

Trades / day3.8

Drawdown7%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	7¢	7¢	$300	$293	−$7 (-2%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	58¢	57¢	$58	$57	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$10	+$6	+55%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-100%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5	Jun 16	$30	+$25	+80%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5	Jun 16	$200	+$44	+22%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	58¢	$59	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	64¢	$10	15h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5	BUY Over	56¢	$10	26h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5	BUY Over	54¢	$20	37h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	13¢	$5	37h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5	BUY Over	78¢	$1	42h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5	BUY Over	78¢	$99	42h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5	BUY Over	86¢	$100	42h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$308	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $350.88 · official $350.88 (match) · 15 history records