Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:31:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B1 0xb1ee…e85d sports 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$52 (+8%) realized +$53 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate71%15W / 6L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day21.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$65
other 43% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +6.6% -3.6% 71% 67% -1.2%
≤30d 21 +6.6% -3.6% 71% 67% -1.2%
≤90d 21 +6.6% -3.6% 71% 67% -1.2%
all 21 +6.6% -3.6% 71% 67% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.6% 67% -1.2%
10% ← realistic here -12.8% 52% -10.7%
15% -21.2% 38% -19.3%
20% -29.0% 14% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$12 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized+$53
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses15 / 6
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions6
Markets (closed)21 / 27
History coverage2d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day21.7
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 40¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Spread: France (-2.5) France 56¢ 58¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $70 +$11 +16%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -99%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $20 +$5 +27%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $20 +$6 +29%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $20 +$13 +62%
New Zealand leading at halftime? Jun 22 $20 +$7 +36%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $66 +$8 +13%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $20 +$5 +23%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $20 +$13 +66%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $20 −$8 -41%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Jun 21 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 +$6 +40%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$10 +50%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $10 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $15 +$16 +105%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $15 +$8 +50%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $15 +$6 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $10 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $10 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $81 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 79¢ $15 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 14¢ $2 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 86¢ $70 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 41¢ $10 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $26 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 78¢ $20 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 8h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 8h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 8h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 8h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 17h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 17h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 97¢ $33 18h
New Zealand leading at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $27 18h
New Zealand leading at halftime? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 18h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 59¢ $20 18h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $69 26h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL FURIA 17¢ $5 26h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 72¢ $50 26h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 94¢ $0 27h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 94¢ $24 27h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 55¢ $15 27h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 76¢ $20 27h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $34 28h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL FURIA 25¢ $12 28h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $20 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.00 · official $69.00 (match) · 53 history records