Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:00:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb1ed…8168 other 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$318 (-12%) realized −$263 · open −$55
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%15W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$553now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$131
7 days−$349
14 days−$291
30 days−$274
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$25
other 39% −$235
crypto 4% −$53
world 1% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -17.5% -25.3% 43% 43% -26.1%
≤30d 32 -7.9% -16.7% 47% 47% -22.1%
≤90d 34 -13.3% -21.6% 44% 44% -22.7%
all 34 -13.3% -21.6% 44% 44% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 44% -22.7%
10% -29.1% 35% -30.1%
15% -35.9% 29% -36.8%
20% -42.2% 26% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$48 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$553
Realized−$263
Unrealized−$55
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses15 / 19
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions17
Markets (closed)34 / 51
History coverage58d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $125 $126 +$1 (+1%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 30¢ $50 $74 +$24 (+48%)
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 58¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-9%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $42 −$8 (-15%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 44¢ $38 $31 −$7 (-19%)
Will Rafael Leao be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $25 −$25 (-50%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $23 −$27 (-54%)
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 16¢ 14¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-16%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+51%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $13 +$3 (+30%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $12 +$2 (+22%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-23%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $6 −$4 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $32 −$31 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $29 −$28 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $67 +$67 +99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $236 −$234 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $70 +$20 +29%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $258 +$42 +16%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 −$49 -98%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $41 +$54 +133%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $45 −$19 -42%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $122 +$78 +64%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $32 +$68 +216%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $89 −$88 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$4 -96%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $81 +$15 +18%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $84 −$84 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $67 +$33 +50%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $40 +$10 +26%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $30 +$20 +67%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $59 +$121 +204%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $55 −$29 -54%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $122 −$122 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $66 −$51 -77%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $39 −$29 -74%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $53 −$52 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $23 −$22 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $29 +$5 +18%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $30 +$24 +79%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $34 −$33 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $53 +$58 +109%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 19 $10 +$16 +163%
Bruins vs. Sabres Apr 28 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $32 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 28¢ $29 4h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 67¢ $134 4h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $67 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 78¢ $236 13h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 90¢ $70 25h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 90¢ $20 25h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $70 25h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 16¢ $11 26h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 16¢ $1 26h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 16¢ $1 26h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 16¢ $1 26h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 16¢ $1 26h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 16¢ $1 26h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 86¢ $25 30h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 86¢ $30 30h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 86¢ $204 30h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $50 31h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) SELL Germany 95¢ $95 33h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 40¢ $41 34h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 SELL Under 26¢ $21 34h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 SELL Under 26¢ $5 34h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 SELL Under 26¢ $0 34h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Under 45¢ $36 34h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Under 45¢ $9 34h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 31¢ $32 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $122 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $89 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $553.43 · official $552.18 (match) · 158 history records