Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:41:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B1 0xb1e5…264f sports 10 markets active 5d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$43 (+4%) realized +$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day15.3pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$179
crypto 16% −$150
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +13.1% +2.3% 60% 60% -6.8%
≤30d 10 +13.1% +2.3% 60% 60% -6.8%
≤90d 10 +13.1% +2.3% 60% 60% -6.8%
all 10 +13.1% +2.3% 60% 60% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.3% 60% -6.8%
10% -7.5% 60% -15.7%
15% -16.4% 50% -23.9%
20% -24.6% 40% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$71 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $153 −$150 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 11 $81 +$73 +89%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $147 +$37 +26%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $153 −$6 -4%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $98 +$55 +56%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $119 −$118 -99%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. LG Twins Jun 10 $31 +$47 +154%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. KT Wiz Jun 10 $101 +$70 +69%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $71 +$30 +41%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 10 $8 −$8 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 5d
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) SELL Knicks 100¢ $154 5d
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) BUY Knicks 52¢ $81 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Texas Rangers 78¢ $184 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 61¢ $147 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 58¢ $147 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ $153 5d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets SELL St. Louis Cardinals 87¢ $153 5d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY St. Louis Cardinals 55¢ $98 5d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY Cincinnati Reds 65¢ $119 5d
KBO: SSG Landers vs. LG Twins SELL LG Twins 81¢ $78 6d
KBO: SSG Landers vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 31¢ $31 6d
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. KT Wiz SELL KT Wiz 81¢ $170 6d
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. KT Wiz BUY KT Wiz 47¢ $101 6d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Washington Nationals 100¢ $101 6d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Washington Nationals 70¢ $71 6d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Over 63¢ $8 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 19 history records