trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? | Yes | 8¢ | 8¢ | $5,201 | $4,747 | −$453 (-9%) |
| Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? | Yes | 19¢ | 20¢ | $1,092 | $1,202 | +$110 (+10%) |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $1,024 | $977 | −$47 (-5%) |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? | Yes | 6¢ | 5¢ | $857 | $836 | −$21 (-2%) |
| Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? | Yes | 7¢ | 9¢ | $580 | $770 | +$191 (+33%) |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? | Yes | 4¢ | 4¢ | $788 | $760 | −$28 (-4%) |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? | Yes | 1¢ | 2¢ | $368 | $481 | +$113 (+31%) |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? | Yes | 12¢ | 12¢ | $480 | $460 | −$20 (-4%) |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? | Yes | 3¢ | 3¢ | $383 | $355 | −$28 (-7%) |
| Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? | Yes | 3¢ | 7¢ | $43 | $113 | +$70 (+164%) |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $29 | $30 | +$1 (+4%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? | Jun 11 | $400 | −$15 | -4% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -3.7% | -12.9% | 0% | 0% | -12.9% |
| ≤30d | 1 | -3.7% | -12.9% | 0% | 0% | -12.9% |
| ≤90d | 1 | -3.7% | -12.9% | 0% | 0% | -12.9% |
| all | 1 | -3.7% | -12.9% | 0% | 0% | -12.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -12.9% | 0% | -12.9% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -21.2% | 0% | -21.2% |
| 15% | -28.8% | 0% | -28.8% |
| 20% | -35.8% | 0% | -35.8% |