Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:49:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
B1 0xb1e1…87e6 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$59 (+52%) realized +$68 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 33d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$63
other 15% −$2
politics 11% −$6
weather 3% −$3
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-46.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +172.5% +146.6% 100% 100% +146.6%
≤30d 1 +172.5% +146.6% 100% 100% +146.6%
≤90d 8 -41.0% -46.6% 25% 25% +89.7%
all 8 -41.0% -46.6% 25% 25% +89.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.6% 25% +89.7%
10% -51.8% 25% +71.6%
15% -56.4% 25% +55.0%
20% -60.7% 25% +39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +110% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt +110% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$2 · ×17.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.97 per $1 lost it wins $5.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$68
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)8 / 16
History coverage33d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Yes 39¢ 26¢ $21 $14 −$7 (-35%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 30¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+47%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 64¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+22%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 36¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+35%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-18%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-77%)
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-79%)
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $41 +$70 +172%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C or higher on May May 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on May 16? May 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o May 14 $2 +$2 +99%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during the day of their n May 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Trump and Xi not shake hands during the day of their next meeting May 13 $3 −$1 -39%
Will Trump and Xi only be photographed together during the day of thei May 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their May 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 38¢ $16 58m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $39 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $41 3d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 26d
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 26d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 26d
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 26d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 27d
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 27d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 27d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C or higher on May BUY Yes 25¢ $2 32d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on May 16? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 32d
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o SELL No 94¢ $4 32d
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during the day of their n BUY Yes $1 32d
Will Trump and Xi not shake hands during the day of their next meeting BUY Yes $1 32d
Will Trump and Xi not shake hands during the day of their next meeting SELL Yes $1 32d
Will Trump and Xi only be photographed together during the day of thei BUY Yes $1 32d
Will Trump and Xi not shake hands during the day of their next meeting BUY Yes $1 32d
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their BUY No 77¢ $4 32d
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during the day of their n BUY Yes $2 32d
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o BUY No 46¢ $2 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.90 · official $28.90 (match) · 22 history records