Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:15:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

B1 0xb1da…4ce4 crypto 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 57d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$161 (-51%) realized −$51 · open −$110

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -59% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip

Net edge-62%after slip

Net WR29%break-even

Win rate29%4W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$20per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit81%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$1

7 days−$18

14 days−$18

30 days−$18

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +29%

net ROI/market (all)-62.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-90.6%	-91.5%	0%	0%	-96.2%
≤30d	4	-90.6%	-91.5%	0%	0%	-96.2%
≤90d	14	-58.6%	-62.5%	29%	29%	-81.1%
all	14	-58.6%	-62.5%	29%	29%	-81.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-62.5%	29%	-81.1%
10%	-66.1%	21%	-82.9%
15%	-69.4%	14%	-84.6%
20%	-72.4%	0%	-86.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 61% · top 2 77% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -79% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -59% · $-wt -79% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -23% → late -94% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$3 vs −$17 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.06 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$51

Unrealized−$110

Win rate (resolved)29%

Wins / losses4 / 10

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)14 / 16

History coverage57d

Avg bet$20

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 14 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	65¢	0¢	$100	$0	−$100 (-100%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	8¢	0¢	$10	$0	−$10 (-99%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Jun 17	$2	−$1	-62%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$2	−$2	-97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw?	Jun 11	$5	−$5	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Jun 10	$11	−$10	-95%
Knicks vs. Hawks	Apr 23	$20	−$20	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Apr 23	$5	−$5	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Apr 23	$5	−$5	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Apr 23	$8	+$2	+18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Apr 21	$110	−$109	-99%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Dalma Galfi vs Darja Vidmanova	Apr 21	$15	+$7	+43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Apr 21	$10	−$10	-100%
XRP Up or Down - April 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Apr 21	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Apr 21	$2	+$1	+46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Apr 21	$6	+$2	+31%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	8¢	$10	26m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	65¢	$101	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	SELL Up	11¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	BUY Up	26¢	$2	1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	6¢	$2	4d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$5	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	BUY Up	28¢	$5	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	BUY Up	28¢	$5	6d
Knicks vs. Hawks	BUY Knicks	51¢	$20	54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	BUY Up	27¢	$5	54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	SELL Up	1¢	$0	54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	BUY Up	26¢	$5	54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$10	55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	BUY Up	84¢	$8	55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	BUY Down	90¢	$110	57d
Madrid Open, Qualification: Dalma Galfi vs Darja Vidmanova	SELL Dalma Galfi	100¢	$22	57d
Madrid Open, Qualification: Dalma Galfi vs Darja Vidmanova	BUY Dalma Galfi	69¢	$15	57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	BUY Up	34¢	$10	57d
XRP Up or Down - April 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	BUY Up	11¢	$5	57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$3	57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	BUY Down	66¢	$2	57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	BUY Up	75¢	$6	57d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.14 · official $0.14 (match) · 26 history records