Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:51:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B1 0xb1d6…d5d5 sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,049 (+32%) realized +$1,049 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%7W / 10L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$194per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$60est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$795
7 days+$1,468
14 days+$982
30 days+$982
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$70
other 15% +$931
world 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+37.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +72.6% +56.2% 47% 47% +38.1%
≤30d 17 +52.3% +37.8% 41% 41% +17.6%
≤90d 17 +52.3% +37.8% 41% 41% +17.6%
all 17 +52.3% +37.8% 41% 41% +17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +37.8% 41% +17.6%
10% +24.6% 41% +6.3%
15% +12.6% 41% -3.9%
20% +1.5% 41% -13.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +52% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +42% → late +61% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$322 vs −$128 · ×2.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,049
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses7 / 10
Est. fees paid−$60
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage8d
Avg bet$194
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $328 −$30 -9%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $378 −$7 -2%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $131 +$670 +510%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 24 $189 −$185 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $207 +$277 +134%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $299 −$295 -99%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $190 −$187 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $218 +$280 +129%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $303 +$272 +90%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $162 −$15 -9%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Uruguay? Jun 22 $116 +$452 +388%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $52 −$50 -97%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $56 +$139 +250%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $153 +$168 +109%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $329 −$325 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $161 −$161 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 34¢ $298 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 SELL Under 39¢ $177 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 SELL Under 40¢ $195 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $378 12h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $165 12h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $163 12h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $73 21h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 16¢ $52 21h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 22h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $116 22h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 16¢ $79 22h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $299 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $207 33h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $190 35h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $218 2d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $303 2d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL No 33¢ $71 3d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL No 33¢ $76 3d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY No 35¢ $162 3d
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Uruguay? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 3d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $14 3d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $38 3d
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Uruguay? BUY Yes 20¢ $85 3d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $56 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $153 4d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $329 7d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $161 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records