Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:52:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb1d1…2540 world 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate38%27W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$3
politics 16% −$22
other 15% −$1
sports 12% +$13
economics 4% $0
finance 4% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.8% -10.2% 38% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 24 -1.1% -10.5% 38% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 64 -0.4% -9.9% 36% 0% -9.5%
all 72 -2.1% -11.4% 38% 1% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 1% -9.8%
10% -19.9% 1% -18.4%
15% -27.6% 1% -26.3%
20% -34.7% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses27 / 45
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)72 / 74
History coverage485d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 63¢ 67¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $43 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $76 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $82 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $39 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $18 −$2 -9%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $45 $0 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $12 +$1 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 08 $40 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $235 +$2 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $122 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $157 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $40 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $41 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $46 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $36 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $98 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 29 $1 $0 -31%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $115 −$1 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $38 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $10 $0 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $38 +$1 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $37 +$2 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $40 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 19 $37 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $40 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 17 $82 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 16 $44 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 16 $39 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Apr 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 27 $73 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $113 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $49 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $40 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $35 $0 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $214 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 19 $36 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $33 −$1 -2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $80 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $41 $0 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $3 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $53 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $72 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $39 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $42 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $41 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 19h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 20h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 35h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 35h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 35h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $10 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $29 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $38 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $37 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $37 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $14 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $24 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $38 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $25 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $13 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $39 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $6 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $10 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $18 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $44 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $44 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $45 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $45 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 97¢ $13 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $12 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $40 10d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $10 10d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $30 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.22 · official $0.00 (match) · 311 history records