Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:28:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb1c9…909e world 79 markets active 5h ago coverage 525d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+1%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate33%25W / 51L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$24
14 days+$23
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$23
politics 22% +$2
other 17% +$9
sports 9% −$18
economics 4% $0
finance 2% −$1
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +19.8% +8.4% 56% 11% -2.4%
≤30d 29 +3.6% -6.3% 38% 14% -7.7%
≤90d 64 +0.1% -9.4% 30% 8% -8.8%
all 76 -0.9% -10.4% 33% 9% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 9% -8.9%
10% -18.9% 4% -17.7%
15% -26.8% 4% -25.6%
20% -33.9% 4% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

525d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses25 / 51
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)76 / 79
History coverage525d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 37¢ 33¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-9%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $51 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $13 +$22 +173%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $43 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $19 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $48 +$2 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $48 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $3 $0 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $90 −$1 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $47 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $123 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $100 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $7 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $70 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 02 $14 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $26 +$3 +11%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 31 $45 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $46 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $82 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $7 +$1 +14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 24 $47 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 21 $43 −$1 -1%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $1 $0 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $14 −$1 -9%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 19 $13 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 19 $37 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $47 +$1 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $2 $0 +1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 23 $55 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $41 −$3 -7%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $14 $0 -1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $2 −$2 -82%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $66 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $8 $0 -4%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $5 $0 -4%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $85 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $42 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $96 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $161 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $46 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $21 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $49 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 12 $5 $0 +3%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $44 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $51 5h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $7 5h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $45 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $16 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $18 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $13 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $14 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $32 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $11 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $34 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $9 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $29 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $21 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $50 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $2 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $50 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $48 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 77¢ $15 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 77¢ $15 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $17 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $12 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $5 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $2 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.18 · official $0.00 · 357 history records