Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:32:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb1c5…678a world 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 482d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate36%20W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$3
14 days+$2
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$3
other 22% $0
sports 12% +$12
politics 7% $0
economics 4% $0
weather 1% −$24
finance 1% +$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.2% -9.4% 20% 10% -10.0%
≤30d 23 +0.9% -8.7% 43% 9% -9.2%
≤90d 54 -3.5% -12.7% 35% 6% -9.3%
all 56 -3.4% -12.6% 36% 7% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 7% -9.8%
10% -21.0% 2% -18.4%
15% -28.6% 2% -26.3%
20% -35.6% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

482d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses20 / 36
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)56 / 60
History coverage482d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 30¢ 29¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-16%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-16%)
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $137 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $51 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $65 −$3 -5%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $22 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +21%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $139 −$1 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 09 $3 $0 -14%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $99 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $54 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $59 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $138 +$2 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $118 +$4 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $46 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $32 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $46 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $19 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $14 +$2 +12%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $87 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 18 $12 $0 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 18 $124 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $84 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 16 $47 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 14 $46 $0 +1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 11 $21 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 11 $117 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $87 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $43 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $91 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $56 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $39 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $94 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $43 +$1 +1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 12 $32 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 11 $34 $0 +1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $45 $0 -1%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 10 $40 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 10 $84 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 09 $2 $0 +12%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $4 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $15 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $1 $0 -6%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 01 $3 $0 -6%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 28 $4 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $8 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $15 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $14 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $43 3h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $51 8h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $51 11h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $51 20h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $51 24h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 71¢ $10 31h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 71¢ $36 31h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 70¢ $34 31h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 70¢ $12 31h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 28¢ $15 33h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $9 38h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $5 38h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $5 38h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $22 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $22 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $6 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $5 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $33 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $34 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes $3 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes $3 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $14 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $17 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $24 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $55 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $33 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $33 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.60 · official $5.51 (match) · 314 history records