Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:04:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb1c2…20f1 politics 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%5W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$4
sports 26% −$1
other 19% $0
culture 5% $0
economics 2% $0
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -26.6% -33.6% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 8 -12.7% -21.0% 12% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 9 -11.2% -19.7% 22% 0% -9.8%
all 46 -3.1% -12.4% 11% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 0% -9.7%
10% -20.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses5 / 41
Open positions4
Markets (closed)46 / 50
History coverage230d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $66 $66 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $1 $0 -21%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $139 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -59%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $71 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1 $0 -21%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $73 −$1 -1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $71 $0 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 26 $73 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $48 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 04 $71 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? Mar 02 $1 $0 -17%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 01 $76 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 24 $69 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 18 $72 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 09 $72 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 31 $72 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 27 $75 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 22 $150 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 20 $71 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 18 $2 $0 -25%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 17 $72 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 15 $72 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 13 $71 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 12 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 12 $131 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 10 $77 −$1 -1%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 09 $57 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 06 $73 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 05 $76 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 01 $76 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 31 $75 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 27 $77 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 25 $73 $0 -0%
Will António Filipe win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Dec 22 $76 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 19 $75 $0 -0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 13 $77 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 08 $150 $0 -0%
Will Sevilla win the 2025–26 La Liga? Dec 06 $74 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 04 $76 $0 -0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 28 $75 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 26 $75 $0 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 20 $77 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 15 $77 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 12 $75 $0 -0%
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 202 Nov 09 $77 $0 -0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 07 $76 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $66 1h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 28h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 28h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $68 28h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $68 4d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $71 5d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $72 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 9d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 9d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $71 9d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $71 10d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 10d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 11d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 11d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $71 11d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $72 13d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 13d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 16d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $71 16d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $71 21d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 21d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 29d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $73 29d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $73 32d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $30 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.59 · official $70.59 (match) · 272 history records