Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:14:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B1 0xb1c1…9c63 other 96 markets active 1h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,025 (+5%) realized +$930 · open +$95
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate88%79W / 11L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$220per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1,832now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days+$188
14 days+$195
30 days+$398
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% +$93
world 28% +$181
politics 23% +$456
tech 14% +$144
finance 5% +$53
sports 0% −$13
culture 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +12.8% +2.1% 89% 56% -1.1%
≤30d 25 +5.8% -4.3% 88% 40% -4.5%
≤90d 70 +5.7% -4.3% 86% 31% -5.9%
all 90 +6.2% -4.0% 88% 31% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 31% -5.6%
10% -13.1% 7% -14.6%
15% -21.5% 2% -22.9%
20% -29.2% 0% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$24 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.15 per $1 lost it wins $4.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$1,832
Realized+$930
Unrealized+$95
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses79 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)90 / 96
History coverage161d
Avg bet$220
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 94¢ 99¢ $619 $650 +$31 (+5%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 87¢ 98¢ $468 $530 +$62 (+13%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 95¢ 94¢ $420 $417 −$3 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $200 $205 +$5 (+2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 25 $400 −$29 -7%
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 24 $277 +$32 +12%
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 24 $191 +$43 +22%
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 23 $232 +$26 +11%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 23 $101 +$19 +19%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 22 $377 +$36 +10%
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $201 +$18 +9%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $101 +$32 +32%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $132 +$11 +8%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? Jun 12 $26 +$12 +45%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $200 +$11 +5%
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $201 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1,001 +$22 +2%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $313 +$60 +19%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 08 $871 +$15 +2%
Will Woo Sang-ho win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election? Jun 04 $301 +$13 +4%
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Jun 04 $201 +$23 +12%
Will Shin Yong-han win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial Jun 04 $320 +$5 +2%
Will Kim Sang-wook win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? Jun 04 $101 +$16 +16%
Will Robert Abela be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 20 Jun 01 $215 +$10 +4%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $400 +$10 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $110 +$12 +11%
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives i May 31 $436 +$20 +4%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 29 $440 −$5 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $301 +$13 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $684 +$29 +4%
Will DISY win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives el May 24 $101 +$35 +34%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 24 $501 +$28 +6%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 22 $101 +$19 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $118 +$20 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $230 −$112 -49%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $210 +$19 +9%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect May 11 $133 −$39 -29%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 09 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election? May 08 $104 +$5 +5%
Will Liam Shrivastava win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral May 08 $101 +$20 +20%
Will Caroline Woodley win the 2026 London Borough of Hackney mayoral e May 08 $180 +$9 +5%
Will Zoë Garbett win the 2026 London Borough of Hackney mayoral electi May 08 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after May 08 $100 +$4 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 06 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 05 $380 +$7 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 02 $571 +$12 +2%
Will Iran strike Pakistan by April 30, 2026? May 01 $67 +$1 +2%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 01 $221 +$6 +3%
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $130 +$3 +2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $264 +$24 +9%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 30 $733 +$21 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $216 +$5 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 26 $200 +$16 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $321 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 84¢ $266 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 95¢ $300 25h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $200 25h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $100 33h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 96¢ $104 33h
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $234 33h
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? BUY Yes 81¢ $191 2d
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio BUY Yes 89¢ $277 2d
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? SELL No 99¢ $258 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $119 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 92¢ $100 3d
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY No 89¢ $232 3d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $414 3d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $100 4d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 83¢ $101 4d
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $219 4d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 91¢ $277 6d
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 92¢ $132 7d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 12d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $15 12d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $172 14d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 14d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 14d
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $203 14d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $620 15d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? BUY Up 68¢ $26 15d
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $201 15d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? BUY Yes 95¢ $200 15d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $701 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,831.80 · official $1,831.80 (match) · 222 history records