Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:47:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb1c1…d6ee world 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 347d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate33%16W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$1
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$10
other 37% +$2
sports 10% +$3
politics 6% +$9
culture 3% −$1
economics 2% $0
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.3% -9.3% 56% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 26 -1.5% -10.9% 38% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 33 -0.8% -10.2% 39% 3% -9.6%
all 48 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 4% -9.5%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

347d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses16 / 32
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage347d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 31¢ 28¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $94 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $94 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $18 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $265 +$2 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $179 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $277 +$2 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $94 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $85 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $94 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $123 −$3 -2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $88 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $25 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $7 $0 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $4 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $130 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $97 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 02 $177 +$7 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $7 −$1 -8%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $86 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $17 −$4 -26%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $96 −$13 -13%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $86 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $38 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $31 +$1 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $44 $0 -0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $251 +$1 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $107 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $1,191 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $618 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $19 +$2 +13%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $613 +$1 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jul 09 $9 $0 -4%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 09 $167 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 09 $61 $0 -0%
Will turnout be between 1100000 and 1200000 in the NYC Democratic mayo Jul 09 $20 $0 -2%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 09 $98 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jul 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jul 09 $105 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 09 $114 $0 +0%
Will UCR win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jul 09 $55 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 09 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $97 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 08 $49 +$10 +20%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Jul 08 $144 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $94 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $94 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $10 29h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $84 32h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $94 32h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $17 44h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 44h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $18 45h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $94 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $94 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $8 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $77 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $58 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $28 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $86 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $86 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $94 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $94 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $71 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $14 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $85 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $85 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $85 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $94 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $94 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 27¢ $24 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 30¢ $26 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $21 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $75 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $96 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.08 · official $0.00 (match) · 197 history records