Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:38:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B1
0xb1bc…3bc5
politics · 44 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$16 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$25 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Net worth$9
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses4 / 35
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)39 / 44
History coverage31d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 5 History 39 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days−$19
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Yes 36¢ 34¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 52¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 49¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Yes 38¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Down 57¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Jun 14 $1 $0 -10%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 14 $32 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +16%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $7 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $2 $0 -10%
Will Seattle have between 1 and 1.5 inches of precipitation in June? Jun 05 $5 −$4 -84%
Will "Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)" win Best Original Jun 04 $5 −$4 -88%
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 04 $5 −$1 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 5? Jun 04 $5 −$1 -10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $5 $0 -2%
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 04 $5 $0 -6%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $10 −$1 -7%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 04 $5 $0 -2%
Keys vs. Shnaider: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 01 $5 $0 -6%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $5 $0 -7%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 01 $12 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 2? Jun 01 $10 −$1 -11%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 01 $5 $0 -2%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $5 $0 -3%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Jun 01 $5 $0 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $5 $0 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $5 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 2? Jun 01 $5 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 2? Jun 01 $5 −$1 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 2? Jun 01 $5 −$1 -14%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $5 $0 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $2 $0 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 17 $5 $0 -4%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $3 $0 -6%
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $17 $0 -3%
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $5 $0 -2%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 14 $5 $0 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $4 $0 -9%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 14 $2 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $3 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 44% −$3
other 17% −$10
world 12% −$5
weather 12% −$3
crypto 5% −$4
sports 5% +$1
finance 2% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL Yes 66¢ $1 56m
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 57m
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House SELL Yes 42¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $5 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 36¢ $3 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $8 2h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 8d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 60¢ $5 8d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 8d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 60¢ $8 8d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 61¢ $6 8d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 8d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 8d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 60¢ $8 8d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 8d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 8d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 8d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 8d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY Yes 44¢ $1 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 59¢ $4 8d
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 32¢ $1 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 29¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -3.7% -12.9% 33% 0% -5.4%
≤30d 33 -17.9% -25.8% 12% 9% -20.5%
≤90d 39 -16.0% -24.0% 10% 8% -19.4%
all 39 -16.0% -24.0% 10% 8% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.0% 8% -19.4%
10% -31.3% 3% -27.1%
15% -37.9% 0% -34.1%
20% -44.0% 0% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.56 · official $8.56 (match) · 132 history records