Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:40:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb1bc…e269 sports 705 markets active 0h ago coverage 430d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,877 (-12%) realized −$1,792 · open −$85
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate35%242W / 453L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$303now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$10
14 days+$9
30 days−$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$1,371
sports 10% −$59
other 10% −$397
weather 4% −$60
world 2% −$34
finance 1% −$19
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -20.3% -27.8% 15% 15% +1.4%
≤30d 208 -33.9% -40.2% 23% 19% -20.1%
≤90d 208 -33.9% -40.2% 23% 19% -20.1%
all 695 -18.0% -25.8% 35% 31% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.8% 31% -20.5%
10% -32.9% 28% -28.1%
15% -39.4% 24% -35.0%
20% -45.4% 20% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$9 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

430d coverage
Net worth$303
Realized−$1,792
Unrealized−$85
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses242 / 453
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)695 / 705
History coverage430d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 695 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 13¢ 9¢ $179 $127 −$52 (-29%)
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 13¢ 12¢ $101 $95 −$6 (-5%)
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 9¢ 8¢ $64 $62 −$2 (-4%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 28¢ 24¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-12%)
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 0¢ 0¢ $7 $3 −$4 (-52%)
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 0¢ 0¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 1¢ 0¢ $13 $3 −$11 (-81%)
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-55%)
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-28%)
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 8¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-97%)
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on May 25? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on May 25? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on May 25? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on May 25? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on May 25? Jun 22 $1 $0 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 25? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 Jun 22 $1 $0 -4%
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 22 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 22 $52 −$5 -10%
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 21 $8 +$21 +250%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 $0 -5%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 -5%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 28? May 28 $56 −$42 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 28? May 28 $27 −$21 -79%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1 $0 -12%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1 $0 -14%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1 $0 -11%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1 $0 -16%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1 $0 -14%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1 $0 -3%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1 $0 +6%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 28? May 28 $21 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 28? May 28 $6 −$2 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 28? May 28 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C or higher on May 28? May 28 $36 +$23 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 28? May 28 $38 −$4 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on May 28? May 28 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 28? May 28 $38 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on May 28? May 28 $1 +$1 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on May 28? May 28 $46 −$10 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on May 28? May 28 $42 −$5 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on May 28? May 28 $1 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on May 28? May 28 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 28? May 28 $1 −$1 -86%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ma May 28 $1 +$1 +146%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on May 28? May 28 $1 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on May 28? May 28 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on May 28? May 28 $1 +$2 +160%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 82°F or higher on May 27? May 28 $4 +$3 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on May 28? May 28 $1 +$2 +184%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 28? May 28 $1 +$2 +191%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 28? May 28 $1 −$1 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on May 28? May 28 $1 −$1 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on May 28? May 27 $1 −$1 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 28? May 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 28? May 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on May 28? May 27 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 12¢ $12 24m
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 13¢ $92 39m
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 0¢ $1 40m
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 0¢ $1 43m
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 0¢ $1 44m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 SELL No 33¢ $1 44m
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 74¢ $2 45m
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 29¢ $46 47m
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 0¢ $2 55m
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 31¢ $51 1h
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 0¢ $2 1h
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 0¢ $3 1h
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 13¢ $51 1h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY No 9¢ $31 1h
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 13¢ $41 1h
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 0¢ $3 1h
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 0¢ $5 1h
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 14¢ $18 15h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY No 9¢ $10 15h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 75¢ $29 15h
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 13¢ $1 16h
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 13¢ $8 16h
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 2¢ $1 16h
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 14¢ $7 16h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY No 8¢ $5 16h
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 14¢ $7 16h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY No 8¢ $5 16h
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 13¢ $5 16h
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 2¢ $1 16h
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 12¢ $5 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $303.42 · official $303.42 (match) · 1774 history records