Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:47:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

B1 0xb1b3…2394 sports 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$11 (+7%) realized +$11 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip

Net edge+10%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$41per market

Trades / day3.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+9.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+21.3%	+9.7%	100%	100%	+9.7%
≤30d	1	+21.3%	+9.7%	100%	100%	+9.7%
≤90d	1	+21.3%	+9.7%	100%	100%	+9.7%
all	1	+21.3%	+9.7%	100%	100%	+9.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+9.7%	100%	+9.7%
10%	-0.8%	0%	-0.8%
15%	-10.3%	0%	-10.3%
20%	-19.1%	0%	-19.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +21% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +21% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$11 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$115

Realized+$11

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions3

Markets (closed)1 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$41

Trades / day3.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	83¢	83¢	$99	$99	−$0 (-0%)
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw?	Yes	20¢	20¢	$10	$10	+$0 (+1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	19¢	19¢	$6	$6	+$0 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)	Jun 24	$49	+$11	+21%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$10	1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	19¢	$6	1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	83¢	$100	1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)	BUY Canada	82¢	$49	33h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.72 · official $114.62 (match) · 5 history records