Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:46:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb1b2…a6a3 sports 296 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$370 (-5%) realized −$341 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate64%156W / 89L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day43.4pace
Fees−$81est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$1,024now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$89
7 days+$305
14 days+$249
30 days−$431
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$660
other 11% +$94
world 5% +$109
politics 2% −$3
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 155 +12.0% +1.3% 75% 48% +0.2%
≤30d 245 +2.5% -7.3% 64% 45% -15.4%
≤90d 245 +2.5% -7.3% 64% 45% -15.4%
all 245 +2.5% -7.3% 64% 45% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.3% 45% -15.4%
10% ← realistic here -16.2% 36% -23.5%
15% -24.3% 27% -30.9%
20% -31.7% 24% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$29 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$1,024
Realized−$341
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses156 / 89
Est. fees paid−$81
Open positions51
Markets (closed)245 / 296
History coverage26d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day43.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 51 History 245 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) IR Iran 58¢ 56¢ $219 $212 −$7 (-3%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Over 73¢ 74¢ $98 $98 +$0 (+0%)
Mallorca Championships: Yannick Hanfmann vs Adolfo Vallejo Yannick Hanfmann 75¢ 100¢ $35 $46 +$12 (+34%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $43 $43 −$1 (-2%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Over 91¢ 91¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech Naomi Osaka 72¢ 72¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 79¢ 94¢ $24 $28 +$4 (+18%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 58¢ 96¢ $17 $28 +$11 (+66%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 64¢ 70¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+10%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 2.5 Under 65¢ 69¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+7%)
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) IR Iran 78¢ 80¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+2%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 66¢ 62¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-6%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score No 56¢ 56¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+0%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 93¢ 99¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Milwaukee Brewers 36¢ 94¢ $8 $21 +$13 (+160%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 94¢ 99¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
IR Iran leading at halftime? No 93¢ 89¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-4%)
Belgium leading at halftime? No 51¢ 54¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+4%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? No 80¢ 78¢ $16 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Chicago White Sox 71¢ 69¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-2%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 58¢ 66¢ $12 $13 +$2 (+13%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 52¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+0%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score No 63¢ 62¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $5 +$1 +16%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $46 +$11 +25%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $43 +$11 +26%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $11 +$1 +7%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $7 +$11 +158%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $61 −$3 -5%
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Mayar Sherif Jun 21 $81 +$16 +19%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $14 +$4 +27%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $46 −$2 -4%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $3 +$2 +76%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $6 $0 +3%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $107 −$65 -61%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $122 $0 +0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $202 +$125 +62%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $31 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $34 +$1 +3%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $54 +$4 +7%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $61 +$1 +1%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Daria Snigur Jun 21 $3 $0 +4%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 21 $85 −$4 -5%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $22 +$12 +53%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $4 $0 +3%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $3 $0 +1%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $1 +$1 +83%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $3 $0 -2%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8 +$4 +52%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $2 $0 +4%
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 18 $2 $0 +10%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +31%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 18 $8 +$3 +38%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $3 $0 +10%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 $0 +13%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $2 +$3 +124%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $2 $0 +12%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $7 +$1 +8%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 3 South Africa? Jun 18 $2 $0 +2%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $1 $0 +18%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Luca Van Assche Jun 18 $1 +$1 +65%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $17 −$14 -83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $4 17m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $4 17m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 17m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 41¢ $2 17m
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY Belgium 99¢ $6 17m
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY No 93¢ $5 17m
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY No 93¢ $5 17m
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY No 93¢ $5 17m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 42¢ $4 17m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 42¢ $2 17m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 67¢ $7 19m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 59¢ $61 21m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 59¢ $52 21m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 57¢ $2 21m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 57¢ $2 21m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 57¢ $2 21m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 57¢ $7 21m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 57¢ $7 21m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 57¢ $13 22m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 57¢ $8 22m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 57¢ $8 22m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 57¢ $8 22m
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 70¢ $3 23m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $7 23m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $4 24m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 56¢ $3 27m
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) BUY San Diego Padres 51¢ $3 29m
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) BUY San Diego Padres 51¢ $6 29m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 78¢ $3 30m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 56¢ $5 31m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,024.28 · official $1,024.22 (match) · 1398 history records