Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:51:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B1 0xb1aa…16cf sports 1226 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 133d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$24,543 (-16%) realized −$24,596 · open +$53
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate76%924W / 288L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day17.1pace
Fees−$92est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1,573now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 133d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$2,880
crypto 31% −$592
sports 26% −$499
world 4% +$170
politics 1% +$142
culture 1% +$306
finance 1% +$77
tech 0% +$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 +0.3% -9.2% 83% 53% -8.8%
≤30d 203 +3.4% -6.5% 83% 58% -9.9%
≤90d 555 -1.3% -10.7% 76% 56% -11.1%
all 1212 +1.5% -8.2% 76% 59% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 59% -11.5%
10% -17.0% 34% -20.0%
15% -25.0% 21% -27.7%
20% -32.3% 12% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$82 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$1,573
Realized−$24,596
Unrealized+$53
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses924 / 288
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$92
Open positions14
Markets (closed)1212 / 1226
History coverage133d ⚠
Avg bet$122
Trades / day17.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 1212 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Over 83¢ 82¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 92¢ 92¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Over 96¢ 96¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? No 83¢ 97¢ $100 $116 +$16 (+16%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner FURIA 88¢ 100¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $950B by June 30? No 86¢ 93¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Will Kylian Mbappe leave Real Madrid before August 31? No 93¢ 96¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? No 86¢ 86¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+22%)
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? No 84¢ 97¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+15%)
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? No 90¢ 90¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 88¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 54¢ 54¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Indianna Spink vs Kimberly Birre Jun 20 $100 +$3 +3%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Hamish Stewart Jun 20 $100 +$17 +17%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $100 +$8 +8%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $201 +$22 +11%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $100 +$10 +10%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $200 +$12 +6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $201 +$43 +21%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 19 $101 +$36 +35%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 19 $100 +$14 +14%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? Jun 19 $50 +$3 +6%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $121 +$41 +34%
ITF Mohammedia: Aran Teixido Garcia vs Daria Egorova Jun 18 $151 +$25 +17%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $200 +$15 +7%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally Jun 18 $50 +$14 +27%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Bhambri/Venus vs Arevalo/Pavic Jun 18 $100 +$15 +14%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $50 −$50 -99%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 18 $30 +$11 +38%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 18 $30 +$16 +52%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $50 +$11 +23%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $100 +$11 +11%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $100 +$8 +8%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $100 +$15 +14%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $20 +$3 +17%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $200 +$17 +8%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $100 +$6 +6%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $100 +$6 +6%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $20 +$13 +65%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $50 +$7 +13%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $50 +$6 +13%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $101 +$26 +26%
ITF Blois: Jana Otzipka vs Clara Burel Jun 16 $100 +$8 +8%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $51 +$26 +52%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $100 +$15 +14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 16 $100 +$7 +7%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $151 −$96 -64%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Kopriva (+1.5) Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $40 +$19 +48%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 AND IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $50 +$13 +26%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $50 +$6 +12%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $20 +$15 +76%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 +$9 +17%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $201 +$65 +32%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $301 +$20 +7%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $20 +$8 +38%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 15 $60 +$9 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 88¢ $100 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 86¢ $100 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Hamish Stewart BUY Hamish Stewart 85¢ $100 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $200 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $302 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Indianna Spink vs Kimberly Birre BUY Kimberly Birrell 97¢ $100 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 82¢ $201 22h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $137 22h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $114 22h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 91¢ $100 26h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $53 26h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $100 32h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $200 32h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $100 33h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $201 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 92¢ $200 33h
ITF Mohammedia: Aran Teixido Garcia vs Daria Egorova BUY Daria Egorova 82¢ $50 2d
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tommy Paul 74¢ $71 2d
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tommy Paul 74¢ $50 2d
ITF Mohammedia: Aran Teixido Garcia vs Daria Egorova BUY Daria Egorova 87¢ $100 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 81¢ $50 2d
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally BUY Karolina Pliskova 78¢ $50 2d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ben Shelton 93¢ $200 2d
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Bhambri/Venus vs Arevalo/Pavic BUY Arevalo/Pavic 87¢ $100 2d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 65¢ $30 2d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Las Vegas Aces 72¢ $30 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 59¢ $20 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $100 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $20 3d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 92¢ $200 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,573.19 · official $1,573.19 (match) · 3500 history records