Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:15:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb1aa…0935 other 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$69 (-17%) realized −$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +62% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +41% what you keep after slip
Net edge+41%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%7W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$31
14 days−$28
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$46
other 21% +$33
crypto 4% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+46.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +116.8% +96.2% 23% 23% +13.5%
≤30d 22 +62.2% +46.7% 32% 32% -17.4%
≤90d 22 +62.2% +46.7% 32% 32% -17.4%
all 22 +62.2% +46.7% 32% 32% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +46.7% 32% -17.4%
10% +32.7% 27% -25.3%
15% +19.9% 23% -32.5%
20% +8.1% 18% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +62% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late +156% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$10 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses7 / 15
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)22 / 29
History coverage10d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Japan? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 0 Japan? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $1 +$27 +2596%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $78 +$19 +24%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +106%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -62%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $1 $0 -16%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $2 −$1 -65%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $2 −$1 -43%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -65%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -79%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 21 $1 $0 -30%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Curaçao? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 −$7 -48%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $50 +$43 +84%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $58 +$8 +13%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$16 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $29 +$12 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 16m
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 16m
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 16m
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 16m
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 16m
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 16m
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 17m
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $97 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 26¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Curaçao? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Curaçao? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 2h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 2 Curaçao? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Curaçao? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Curaçao? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 80¢ $78 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 2 Curaçao? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Curaçao? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Curaçao? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 4h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.54 · official $8.54 (match) · 48 history records