Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:57:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B1 0xb1a9…d58b sports 655 markets active 0h ago coverage 347d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,330 (+2%) realized +$1,330 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%290W / 365L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,121
7 days+$1,121
14 days+$2,312
30 days+$2,491
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$1,427
crypto 25% +$1,756
other 16% +$21
politics 1% −$200
world 1% −$51
tech 0% −$38
weather 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -17.3% -25.2% 50% 43% -5.0%
≤30d 136 +5.6% -4.5% 54% 50% -0.8%
≤90d 426 -53.3% -57.8% 24% 22% -36.1%
all 655 -1.3% -10.7% 44% 41% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 41% -6.3%
10% -19.3% 36% -15.3%
15% -27.1% 32% -23.5%
20% -34.2% 27% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +43% → late -45% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$97 vs −$69 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

347d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,330
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses290 / 365
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)655 / 655
History coverage347d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 655 Trades
no open positions (37 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $785 +$300 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $198 +$254 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $771 +$25 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $773 +$63 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $781 +$217 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $793 +$611 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $341 −$330 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $1,477 +$94 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $498 +$144 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $340 +$234 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $505 +$345 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $232 −$225 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $181 +$232 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $185 +$101 +55%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,005 +$190 +10%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $296 −$293 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $186 −$180 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $186 +$179 +96%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,308 +$338 +26%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $125 +$175 +140%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $406 +$48 +12%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $552 +$168 +30%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $84 −$82 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $89 −$89 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $112 −$112 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $119 −$119 -100%
Spread: Magic (-2.5) Jun 17 $174 −$174 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Jun 17 $129 −$129 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $145 −$145 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $91 −$91 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $143 −$143 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $170 −$170 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $125 −$125 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $205 −$205 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $195 −$195 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $224 −$224 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $785 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $99 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $99 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $771 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $773 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $781 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $793 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $242 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $99 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $492 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $492 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $492 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $498 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $242 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $505 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $232 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $91 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $90 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,196 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $185 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $296 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $2,005 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $186 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $186 2h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Toronto Blue Jays 100¢ $455 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,005 6h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever SELL Indiana Fever 100¢ $720 6h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 89¢ $406 7h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 76¢ $552 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1419 history records