Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:48:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B1 0xb1a7…68f6 weather 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,402 (+18%) realized +$1,472 · open −$70
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate50%14W / 14L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$202per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1,619now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$991
7 days+$1,091
14 days+$1,410
30 days+$1,302
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% +$148
sports 22% +$203
other 11% +$880
politics 3% +$5
weather 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-31.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -13.6% -21.8% 60% 27% +14.9%
≤30d 28 -24.6% -31.8% 50% 25% +10.3%
≤90d 28 -24.6% -31.8% 50% 25% +10.3%
all 28 -24.6% -31.8% 50% 25% +10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.8% 25% +10.3%
10% -38.3% 21% -0.3%
15% -44.3% 14% -9.9%
20% -49.7% 4% -18.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$117 vs −$24 · ×4.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.94 per $1 lost it wins $4.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$1,619
Realized+$1,472
Unrealized−$70
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses14 / 14
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions11
Markets (closed)28 / 39
History coverage40d
Avg bet$202
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $1,421 +$103 +7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $874 +$14 +2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $452 +$852 +188%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 20 $408 +$22 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 20? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 20? Jun 19 $4 −$3 -98%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 19 $134 +$16 +12%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 18 $248 +$65 +26%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $69 +$33 +47%
Will s1zzi have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 Jun 16 $16 +$1 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $397 −$4 -1%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $641 +$172 +27%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $433 +$204 +47%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $292 +$146 +50%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $65 −$65 -99%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) Jun 11 $144 −$142 -99%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $200 +$5 +2%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 02 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S Jun 02 $7 −$7 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Jun 02 $36 −$36 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 02 $61 −$50 -82%
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026? May 22 $4 −$1 -20%
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? May 22 $5 −$1 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 50¢ $3 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 50¢ $0 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 50¢ $53 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 50¢ $5 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 50¢ $0 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 50¢ $0 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $103 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $752 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 50¢ $120 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 100¢ $712 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 50¢ $11 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $564 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $319 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 99¢ $78 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $392 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $77 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 4h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 99¢ $404 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $395 4h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 99¢ $794 6h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 23? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 10h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 23? BUY No 74¢ $12 10h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 34¢ $452 19h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 66¢ $330 27h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 66¢ $0 28h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 66¢ $13 28h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 28h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 66¢ $0 28h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 66¢ $16 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,618.83 · official $1,618.83 (match) · 140 history records