Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:18:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb1a7…8150 sports 1444 markets active 0h ago coverage 239d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$575 (-2%) realized −$572 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate62%874W / 540L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$207now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$69
14 days+$148
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$1,191
other 40% +$851
crypto 1% −$285
politics 0% +$1
world 0% −$7
tech 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -5.8% -14.8% 68% 65% -7.8%
≤30d 372 -10.4% -18.9% 62% 58% -9.4%
≤90d 785 -12.1% -20.4% 61% 57% -16.0%
all 1414 -5.6% -14.6% 62% 58% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 58% -11.9%
10% -22.8% 50% -20.3%
15% -30.2% 34% -28.0%
20% -37.1% 23% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$14 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$207
Realized−$572
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses874 / 540
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions30
Markets (closed)1414 / 1444
History coverage239d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 1414 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 84¢ 86¢ $84 $86 +$1 (+2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 94¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Under 74¢ 74¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 89¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? No 81¢ 80¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes 39¢ 34¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-14%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes 34¢ 30¢ $5 $5 −$1 (-12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 13¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Will New York Yankees win the 2026 American League Championship Series? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will Bert Mizusawa be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Yes 49¢ 76¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+54%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals No 78¢ 78¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 30¢ 22¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-25%)
Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 American League Championship Series? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+19%)
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes 19¢ 17¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes 9¢ 16¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+82%)
Will Elena Rybakina be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 23¢ 16¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-28%)
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+24%)
Will Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 American League Championship Series? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $9 +$2 +24%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $9 +$2 +24%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 +$1 +32%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $9 +$3 +32%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $9 +$2 +24%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 17 $8 +$2 +24%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 +$1 +65%
Senegal to score first vs. France? Jun 16 $9 +$3 +37%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $7 +$2 +28%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $9 +$2 +23%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $9 +$3 +35%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 +$1 +38%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $8 +$2 +32%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Criciúma EC vs. Ceará SC: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $9 +$5 +61%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Criciúma EC win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,696 +$1,560 +92%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $998 −$990 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $280 −$279 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 +$1 +11%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 +$2 +40%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $164 −$162 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $56 −$55 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $2 +$1 +60%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $2 +$1 +42%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $9 +$3 +33%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2 +$2 +79%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 AND Will Korea Republic vs. Czechi Jun 12 $1 +$1 +50%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +46%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $9 +$4 +45%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4 +$2 +39%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $7 +$2 +24%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2 +$1 +52%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $8 +$2 +21%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $3 $0 +8%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $9 +$3 +30%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2 +$1 +57%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $2 +$2 +114%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $9 +$5 +59%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $4 +$2 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $9 14m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY No 78¢ $4 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $7 5h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $0 15h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $8 15h
Senegal to score first vs. France? BUY No 73¢ $9 21h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $9 21h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 75¢ $9 25h
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Iraq 81¢ $8 25h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $2 26h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $2 26h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $2 26h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $5 29h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $9 30h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $9 43h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $9 43h
Criciúma EC vs. Ceará SC: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $3 44h
Criciúma EC vs. Ceará SC: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $0 44h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $2 45h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $2 45h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $9 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $2 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $2 2d
Will Criciúma EC win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $6 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $9 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 81¢ $9 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 80¢ $9 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? BUY No 80¢ $9 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $9 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $207.35 · official $207.36 (match) · 3255 history records