Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:19:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb1a1…a41e other 104 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$312 (-10%) realized −$468 · open +$156
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate37%22W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$1,482now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$48
7 days−$163
14 days−$166
30 days−$262
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$391
crypto 28% +$117
politics 7% −$31
sports 5% −$39
world 2% −$36
finance 1% +$19
tech 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -37.8% -43.7% 26% 22% -40.9%
≤30d 33 -35.8% -41.9% 27% 18% -42.6%
≤90d 51 -12.2% -20.5% 33% 22% -54.8%
all 60 -12.5% -20.8% 37% 22% -53.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 22% -53.1%
10% -28.4% 18% -57.5%
15% -35.3% 12% -61.7%
20% -41.7% 7% -65.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$15 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$1,482
Realized−$468
Unrealized+$156
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses22 / 38
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions44
Markets (closed)60 / 104
History coverage98d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 44 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $782 $962 +$180 (+23%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $48 $50 +$2 (+3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $48 $48 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $58 $40 −$18 (-31%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $31 $37 +$6 (+19%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $40 $36 −$4 (-9%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $31 $32 +$1 (+3%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $21 $26 +$5 (+22%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $29 $23 −$6 (-20%)
US strike on Colombia by December 31? No 77¢ 74¢ $23 $22 −$1 (-4%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 59¢ 64¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $21 $22 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $17 +$7 (+71%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-0%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $23 $14 −$9 (-41%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 60¢ 57¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $7 $6 −$1 (-12%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Yes 76¢ 74¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -92%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -91%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 -1%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 +39%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $28 −$19 -71%
Evo Morales arrested by June 30? Jun 13 $64 −$21 -33%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
AI bubble burst in 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +37%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -91%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +22%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $142 +$6 +4%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 09 $36 −$33 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$3 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -32%
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31? Jun 09 $53 −$25 -48%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $63 −$39 -62%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $4 −$4 -95%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 +35%
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? Jun 01 $12 −$2 -20%
Evo Morales leaves Bolivia by June 30? Jun 01 $20 −$9 -48%
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by May 31, 2026? May 31 $1 $0 +1%
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by June 30, 2026? May 31 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $46 −$45 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $154 −$38 -25%
Evo Morales leaves Bolivia by May 31? May 27 $1 $0 -20%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 25 $2 −$1 -42%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 05 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 19 $26 −$17 -65%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Apr 19 $1 $0 +27%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Apr 19 $1 $0 -39%
World Cup game relocated away from Mexico? Apr 19 $7 −$3 -39%
US x Cuba economic deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $17 −$15 -87%
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Apr 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 14 $1 +$10 +1011%
Will Bolivia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $230 −$230 -100%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 31 $1 $0 -21%
State of Siege declared in Chile by June 30? Mar 31 $5 $0 -1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Mar 31 $1 $0 -39%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Mar 31 $10 −$10 -99%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 31 $1 $0 +6%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 31 $1 $0 +29%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 31 $10 +$2 +24%
Will NVIDIA reach $200 in March? Mar 30 $11 +$5 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 1h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 1h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $17 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 1h
US strike on Colombia by December 31? BUY No 75¢ $10 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 23h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 23h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 23h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 23h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 24h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 24h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 24h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $2 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,482.49 · official $1,482.61 (match) · 427 history records