Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:03:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B1 0xb1a1…dd34 finance 852 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 139d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,996 (+4%) realized +$5,557 · open +$439
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate65%538W / 287L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day21.3pace
Fees−$97est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$6,113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 139d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 26% +$4,012
world 18% −$5,013
other 18% +$2,997
tech 9% −$906
crypto 8% +$1,628
sports 8% −$324
politics 4% +$1,569
economics 4% −$1,308
culture 4% −$689
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +3.6% -6.3% 63% 43% -18.6%
≤30d 160 -2.0% -11.4% 62% 44% -14.9%
≤90d 374 +1.1% -8.5% 66% 46% -8.5%
all 825 +4.1% -5.8% 65% 48% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.8% 48% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -14.8% 32% -17.4%
15% -23.1% 24% -25.4%
20% -30.6% 17% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$123 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$6,113
Realized+$5,557
Unrealized+$439
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses538 / 287
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$97
Open positions28
Markets (closed)825 / 852
History coverage139d ⚠
Avg bet$198
Trades / day21.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 825 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 65¢ 73¢ $742 $834 +$92 (+12%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? No 71¢ 71¢ $648 $644 −$5 (-1%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? No 86¢ 89¢ $605 $629 +$25 (+4%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 69¢ 67¢ $621 $603 −$18 (-3%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June? No 76¢ 86¢ $461 $522 +$62 (+13%)
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in June? Yes 24¢ 44¢ $281 $517 +$235 (+84%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $406 $424 +$18 (+4%)
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? Yes 23¢ 38¢ $198 $319 +$120 (+61%)
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $318 $280 −$38 (-12%)
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 40.0 and 42.9 in June? No 88¢ 96¢ $256 $278 +$22 (+8%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $305 $268 −$36 (-12%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 73¢ 68¢ $245 $231 −$14 (-6%)
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? No 83¢ 78¢ $125 $118 −$7 (-6%)
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 91¢ 96¢ $107 $113 +$6 (+5%)
Will Mexico be the highest-scoring team in Group A during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 50¢ $100 $80 −$20 (-20%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $75 $73 −$2 (-3%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,850 (HIGH) in June? No 78¢ 98¢ $39 $49 +$10 (+26%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? No 91¢ 96¢ $45 $48 +$2 (+5%)
Will Norway be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 78¢ 66¢ $40 $34 −$6 (-15%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 86¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+12%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 72¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-10%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 62¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-8%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 58¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? Jun 17 $374 +$44 +12%
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be below 40.0 in June? Jun 17 $690 +$27 +4%
Will Warsh say "I Don't Know" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $20 +$2 +12%
Will one person dissent the June Fed decision? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Warsh say "Depression" or "Recession" during June Press Conferenc Jun 17 $9 $0 +3%
Will Warsh say "Pandemic" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $7 $0 +2%
Will Warsh say "Stock" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $24 +$1 +6%
Will Warsh say "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" during June Press Con Jun 17 $81 +$11 +13%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 17 $482 −$92 -19%
Will no one dissent the June Fed decision? Jun 17 $1,689 −$779 -46%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 16 $327 +$133 +41%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 16 $217 +$77 +35%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 16 $290 +$67 +23%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 16 $420 +$73 +17%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 16 $101 −$56 -55%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Jun 15 $255 +$1 +0%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? Jun 15 $8 +$2 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1,241 −$126 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $130 −$125 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $103 +$54 +53%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Jun 13 $302 −$48 -16%
Will MrBeast say "Hundred" or "Thousand" or "Million" 10+ times during Jun 13 $78 +$24 +30%
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $89 +$69 +78%
Will MrBeast say "Lamborghini" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $24 +$43 +182%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $90 +$1 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $85 −$6 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1,506 −$387 -26%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $320 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $24 +$11 +45%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $242 −$56 -23%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $129 −$24 -19%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $711 −$78 -11%
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $512 +$212 +41%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $7 +$3 +33%
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.0% in May? Jun 10 $27 +$1 +3%
Will Core CPI MoM be -0.1% in May? Jun 10 $99 +$2 +2%
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? Jun 10 $111 +$139 +126%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in May? Jun 10 $776 +$125 +16%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.8% in May? Jun 10 $255 +$2 +1%
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in May? Jun 10 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Core CPI YoY be 3.0% in May? Jun 10 $76 +$24 +32%
Will Core CPI YoY be 3.3% or more in May? Jun 10 $57 +$2 +4%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Jun 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Will MrBeast say "Prize" during his next YouTube video? Jun 10 $26 −$26 -98%
Will MrBeast say "Red Line" during his next YouTube video? Jun 10 $72 −$71 -98%
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? Jun 10 $141 −$138 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $101 −$3 -3%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $84 −$83 -98%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 21¢ $318 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 69¢ $104 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 69¢ $104 1h
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of BUY No 83¢ $125 1h
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? SELL Yes 96¢ $418 1h
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be below 40.0 in June? SELL No 96¢ $12 1h
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be below 40.0 in June? SELL No 96¢ $130 1h
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 40.0 and 42.9 in June? SELL No 95¢ $133 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 69¢ $414 1h
Will Warsh say "Depression" or "Recession" during June Press Conferenc BUY No 97¢ $9 4h
Will Warsh say "Pandemic" during June Press Conference? BUY No 98¢ $7 4h
Will Warsh say "Stock" during June Press Conference? BUY No 94¢ $24 4h
Will Warsh say "I Don't Know" during June Press Conference? BUY No 89¢ $20 4h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 50¢ $390 4h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 59¢ $482 6h
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be below 40.0 in June? SELL No 98¢ $134 6h
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be below 40.0 in June? SELL No 98¢ $324 6h
Will Warsh say "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" during June Press Con BUY Yes 88¢ $81 6h
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be below 40.0 in June? SELL No 98¢ $117 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 58¢ $75 6h
Will no one dissent the June Fed decision? SELL No 28¢ $72 6h
Will no one dissent the June Fed decision? SELL No 35¢ $6 8h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $28 8h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $140 8h
Will no one dissent the June Fed decision? SELL No 35¢ $10 8h
Will no one dissent the June Fed decision? SELL No 35¢ $54 9h
Will no one dissent the June Fed decision? SELL No 35¢ $4 10h
Will no one dissent the June Fed decision? SELL No 35¢ $6 10h
Will no one dissent the June Fed decision? SELL No 35¢ $20 10h
Will no one dissent the June Fed decision? SELL No 35¢ $35 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,113.15 · official $6,113.17 (match) · 3500 history records