Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:09:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
B1 0xb1a1…d308 crypto 498 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 101d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$10,882 (+4%) realized +$9,550 · open +$1,332
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate83%375W / 75L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$493per market
Trades / day30.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$45,978now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$451
7 days+$374
14 days+$756
30 days+$1,443
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$5,307
other 25% +$3,140
finance 10% +$471
politics 9% +$2,284
tech 9% +$628
economics 5% +$1,062
culture 2% +$441
crypto 1% −$199
sports 1% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +4.1% -5.8% 82% 23% -8.6%
≤30d 90 +7.0% -3.2% 82% 18% -7.6%
≤90d 390 +12.6% +1.9% 83% 24% -4.3%
all 450 +11.7% +1.1% 83% 22% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.1% 22% -4.0%
10% ← realistic here -8.6% 13% -13.2%
15% -17.4% 9% -21.6%
20% -25.5% 7% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$39 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×5.08 per $1 lost it wins $5.08
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$45,978
Realized+$9,550
Unrealized+$1,332
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses375 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions49
Markets (closed)450 / 498
History coverage102d ⚠
Avg bet$493
Trades / day30.8
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 49 History 450 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Thai Constitutional Court invalidates election? No 93¢ 98¢ $5,247 $5,541 +$294 (+6%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $4,067 $4,132 +$64 (+2%)
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 96¢ $3,161 $3,430 +$270 (+9%)
McDonald's CEO out by June 30? No 94¢ 98¢ $3,117 $3,238 +$121 (+4%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $3,009 $3,061 +$52 (+2%)
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $2,799 $2,814 +$15 (+1%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 85¢ 84¢ $2,725 $2,674 −$51 (-2%)
Will Uber ask Travis Kalanick back by June 30, 2027? No 94¢ 98¢ $2,519 $2,617 +$98 (+4%)
100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $1,796 $1,862 +$67 (+4%)
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $1,500 $1,570 +$70 (+5%)
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027? No 83¢ 88¢ $1,348 $1,423 +$75 (+6%)
Will Scotland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 98¢ 98¢ $1,156 $1,167 +$11 (+1%)
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 96¢ 95¢ $1,153 $1,148 −$6 (-1%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? No 94¢ 98¢ $1,096 $1,140 +$43 (+4%)
Anthropic CEO arrested? No 97¢ 99¢ $1,092 $1,108 +$17 (+2%)
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 95¢ 94¢ $970 $958 −$11 (-1%)
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026? No 94¢ 98¢ $815 $855 +$40 (+5%)
Sundar Pichai out as Google CEO before 2027? No 85¢ 95¢ $537 $604 +$67 (+12%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 85¢ 85¢ $604 $604 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 98¢ 98¢ $598 $598 +$1 (+0%)
Katy Perry confirmed pregnant by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $541 $546 +$5 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $50 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 93¢ 99¢ $486 $520 +$34 (+7%)
Will OpenAI have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $432 $441 +$9 (+2%)
Will Haiti be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 96¢ 95¢ $443 $440 −$3 (-1%)
Will Sweden reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 98¢ 96¢ $412 $405 −$8 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$4 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 +$7 +48%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Jun 16 $527 −$197 -37%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $1,426 +$48 +3%
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $4,909 −$1,093 -22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $5,031 +$801 +16%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $105 +$26 +25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 14 $1,199 +$124 +10%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1,592 −$50 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 14 $459 +$86 +19%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 14 $626 +$15 +2%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Jun 14 $360 +$8 +2%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 14 $478 +$11 +2%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? Jun 14 $456 +$14 +3%
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? Jun 14 $5,544 +$84 +2%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $40 −$3 -7%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 14 $88 +$6 +6%
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Jun 14 $1,934 −$159 -8%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 13 $91 +$5 +6%
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Jun 13 $1,130 −$14 -1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $79 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 13 $928 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $60 +$1 +2%
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? Jun 12 $1,546 +$13 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $46 +$13 +29%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 300 ( Jun 12 $914 +$33 +4%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 150 ( Jun 12 $156 +$9 +6%
SpaceX goes public through Bill Ackman "SPAR" company? Jun 12 $291 +$166 +57%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1,660 +$45 +3%
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? Jun 12 $240 +$6 +2%
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? Jun 12 $1,386 +$49 +4%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $688 +$222 +32%
Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by June 30? Jun 11 $160 +$7 +4%
Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by June 30? Jun 11 $105 +$2 +2%
Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by June 30? Jun 11 $87 +$3 +3%
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting? Jun 10 $83 +$2 +3%
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? Jun 10 $508 +$99 +20%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 Jun 10 $108 +$1 +1%
Will xAI have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $1,082 +$22 +2%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $201 +$17 +8%
Will Fannie Mae not IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $139 +$5 +4%
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30? Jun 08 $615 +$14 +2%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in June 2026? Jun 08 $157 +$2 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 07 $505 +$7 +1%
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $58 +$311 +532%
Will Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $801 +$24 +3%
JD Vance out as VP by June 30? Jun 04 $532 +$3 +1%
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7? Jun 04 $82 −$23 -28%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 03 $637 +$55 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? BUY No 97¢ $88 1h
Will Haiti be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 97¢ $38 1h
Will Curaçao be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 98¢ $33 1h
Will Canada be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $19 1h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 85¢ $607 1h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $1 3h
No one announced as next James Bond? BUY Yes 91¢ $0 3h
Will Curaçao be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 96¢ $48 7h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $55 on the final trading day of June 2 BUY Yes 96¢ $5 7h
No one announced as next James Bond? BUY Yes 91¢ $14 8h
Will Canada be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $46 8h
No one announced as next James Bond? BUY Yes 91¢ $14 8h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $62 9h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $14 9h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $4 9h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $4 13h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $4 14h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $4 14h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $6 14h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $29 14h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $9 14h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $45 15h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $98 15h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $13 15h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $124 15h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $48 21h
Will Uber ask Travis Kalanick back by June 30, 2027? BUY No 98¢ $191 21h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $58 24h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $88 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45,977.57 · official $45,979.33 (match) · 3500 history records