Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:26:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B1 0xb1a0…fb89 crypto 358 markets active 0h ago coverage 84d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,785 (-8%) realized −$7,839 · open +$54
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate48%188W / 204L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$256per market
Trades / day21.3pace
Fees−$891est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$238now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 84d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$6,924
crypto 25% −$799
other 24% −$1,082
politics 2% −$5
weather 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -39.7% -45.5% 14% 14% -83.5%
≤30d 171 -15.9% -23.9% 32% 29% -43.5%
≤90d 392 -6.3% -15.2% 48% 41% -24.1%
all 392 -6.3% -15.2% 48% 41% -24.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.2% 41% -24.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.3% 35% -31.3%
15% -30.7% 29% -38.0%
20% -37.5% 21% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$177 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$238
Realized−$7,839
Unrealized+$54
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses188 / 204
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$891
Open positions2
Markets (closed)392 / 358
History coverage84d
Avg bet$256
Trades / day21.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 392 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Borna Gojo Coleman Wong 36¢ 60¢ $78 $132 +$55 (+70%)
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Diana Shnaider 52¢ 72¢ $74 $103 +$29 (+39%)
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Clara Tauson 36¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 114 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) Jun 22 $400 −$400 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 22 $181 −$181 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 22 $210 −$210 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-17? Jun 22 $201 −$201 -100%
Will Granada CF vs. Burgos CF end in a draw? Jun 22 $7 −$455 -6271%
Will RB Ōmiya Ardija vs. AC Nagano Parceiro end in a draw? Jun 22 $700 −$700 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Guiomar Maristany vs Kaitlin Quevedo Jun 22 $165 −$165 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 22 $100 −$93 -93%
AC Monza vs. SS Juve Stabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Exact Score: AFC Bournemouth 1 - 3 Manchester City FC? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $66 −$66 -100%
Exact Score: AFC Bournemouth 0 - 2 Manchester City FC? Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 22 $145 −$145 -100%
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-05-16? Jun 22 $145 −$145 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Manchester City FC leading at halftime? Jun 22 $200 −$200 -100%
Will FC Ryūkyū vs. Gainare Tottori end in a draw? Jun 22 $297 −$297 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $258 −$258 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 22 $150 −$150 -100%
Will San Jose Earthquakes vs. FC Dallas end in a draw? Jun 22 $468 −$494 -106%
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $20 −$463 -2315%
Exact Score: AFC Bournemouth 0 - 3 Manchester City FC? Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 111.5 Jun 22 $477 −$477 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 22 $121 −$121 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 +$31 +2349%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 18? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 22 $131 −$131 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Martina Trevisan vs Talia Gibson Jun 22 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 22 $131 −$131 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 22 $230 −$230 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $121 −$121 -100%
AC Monza vs. SS Juve Stabia: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $260 −$260 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 22 $335 −$335 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 22 $111 −$111 -100%
Will Reilac Shiga vs. Giravanz Kitakyūshū end in a draw? Jun 22 $356 −$356 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 22 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Charaeva vs Ayla Aksu Jun 22 $77 +$36 +46%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $112 −$112 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $166 −$86 -52%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Aoi Ito Jun 20 $132 −$129 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $23 −$22 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $23 −$22 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $23 −$22 -97%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $23 −$22 -97%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva Jun 19 $66 −$65 -99%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Jun 19 $38 +$28 +74%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson Jun 19 $613 −$610 -99%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 19 $296 +$355 +120%
Brescia: Anastasiia Sobolieva vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Jun 19 $125 +$169 +136%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Borna Gojo BUY Coleman Wong 35¢ $76 15m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Borna Gojo SELL Coleman Wong 42¢ $75 17m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Borna Gojo BUY Coleman Wong 52¢ $99 21m
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 52¢ $75 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider SELL Clara Tauson 48¢ $75 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider BUY Clara Tauson 36¢ $59 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider BUY Clara Tauson 39¢ $2 2h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Brandon Nakashima 50¢ $4 44h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Brandon Nakashima 49¢ $7 44h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Brandon Nakashima 49¢ $3 44h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Brandon Nakashima 49¢ $3 44h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Brandon Nakashima 49¢ $14 44h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Brandon Nakashima 49¢ $2 44h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Brandon Nakashima 49¢ $1 44h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Brandon Nakashima 49¢ $3 44h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Brandon Nakashima 49¢ $2 44h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Brandon Nakashima 49¢ $14 44h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Brandon Nakashima 49¢ $7 44h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Brandon Nakashima 49¢ $5 44h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Brandon Nakashima 49¢ $10 44h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Brandon Nakashima 49¢ $1 44h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Brandon Nakashima 49¢ $8 44h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Brandon Nakashima 49¢ $29 44h
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Charaeva vs Ayla Aksu SELL Ayla Aksu 99¢ $76 44h
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Charaeva vs Ayla Aksu SELL Ayla Aksu 99¢ $7 44h
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Charaeva vs Ayla Aksu SELL Ayla Aksu 99¢ $29 44h
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Charaeva vs Ayla Aksu BUY Ayla Aksu 67¢ $77 46h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Aryna Sabalenka 19¢ $77 46h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 31¢ $2 47h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 39¢ $40 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $237.55 · official $237.55 (match) · 1840 history records