Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:39:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B1 0xb19f…cc40 politics 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 110d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate86%6W / 1L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 66% +$4
world 29% +$4
tech 5% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.3% -7.5% 100% 0% -7.5%
≤30d 2 +2.1% -7.6% 100% 0% -7.6%
≤90d 5 +1.6% -8.1% 100% 0% -8.0%
all 7 +1.0% -8.6% 86% 0% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 0% -8.6%
10% -17.4% 0% -17.4%
15% -25.3% 0% -25.4%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×6.13 per $1 lost it wins $6.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses6 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage110d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 27 $141 +$3 +2%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 30 $138 +$3 +2%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 29 $136 +$2 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 04 $40 +$1 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 04 $94 +$1 +1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 21 $136 −$2 -1%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 15 $131 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $144 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $141 27d
Trump out as President by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $141 28d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $138 58d
Trump out as President by April 30? SELL No 100¢ $138 58d
Trump out as President by April 30? BUY No 98¢ $136 83d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY Yes 98¢ $40 97d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $40 97d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $94 98d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $94 98d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $136 103d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $131 104d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $131 109d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records