Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:26:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B1 0xb19a…7e59 sports 72 markets active 2h ago coverage 206d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$49 (+2%) realized +$61 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate66%47W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$197
7 days−$149
14 days−$116
30 days−$115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$134
crypto 22% +$34
other 6% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -21.1% -28.6% 44% 22% -23.7%
≤30d 15 -5.9% -14.9% 67% 40% -18.7%
≤90d 47 -26.0% -33.1% 55% 30% -13.7%
all 71 -5.8% -14.8% 66% 41% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 41% -11.2%
10% -22.9% 24% -19.7%
15% -30.4% 18% -27.4%
20% -37.2% 13% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$13 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

206d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized+$61
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses47 / 24
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 72
History coverage206d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 69¢ 62¢ $109 $97 −$12 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $222 −$112 -51%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $101 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 19 $81 −$80 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $210 +$13 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $75 +$43 +57%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $80 +$11 +13%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $99 −$18 -19%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $74 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$2 +8%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $30 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$3 +29%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $100 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 26 $5 +$1 +16%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere - Map 3 Winner Mar 29 $10 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner Mar 29 $104 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Mar 29 $50 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Mar 29 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Mar 29 $97 +$8 +9%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner Mar 29 $111 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Mar 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner Mar 28 $105 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Mar 26 $80 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Mar 25 $58 +$17 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Mar 25 $30 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Mar 25 $60 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 24 $67 +$8 +12%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Vitality (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gr Mar 23 $61 +$9 +14%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Grou Mar 22 $1 +$1 +62%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: RED Canids vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner Mar 22 $9 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Vitality (BO1) Mar 22 $2 −$1 -37%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Team Falcons (BO1) Mar 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Mar 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner Mar 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs TYLOO (BO1) Mar 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs 3DMAX (BO1) Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO1) Mar 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs Imperial - Map 2 Winner Mar 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gro Mar 22 $51 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs Lynn Vision (BO3) Mar 22 $45 −$25 -56%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Vitality (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gr Mar 22 $50 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 21 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 21 $1 $0 +44%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO3) Dec 13 $1 +$1 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 69¢ $110 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 57¢ $37 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 38¢ $73 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 91¢ $161 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 58¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 76¢ $50 6h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta SELL Vitality 100¢ $61 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta SELL Vitality 89¢ $162 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 87¢ $179 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 80¢ $30 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 88¢ $80 6d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 78¢ $81 6d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 95¢ $99 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $75 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $75 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $74 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 88¢ $50 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 12¢ $1 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 92¢ $20 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 9¢ $1 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 92¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 7d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $39 7d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $30 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $14 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Vitality 100¢ $119 8d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 84¢ $100 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.04 · official $97.04 (match) · 208 history records