Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:48:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb194…82cf politics 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 273d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate35%19W / 36L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% $0
world 28% +$1
politics 20% +$1
sports 6% +$1
crypto 5% −$1
economics 3% $0
culture 3% $0
tech 3% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.5% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +3.0% -6.8% 57% 14% -8.8%
all 55 -0.4% -9.9% 35% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 2% -9.3%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.4% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.05 per $1 lost it wins $2.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

273d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses19 / 36
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage273d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 81¢ 82¢ $31 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $98 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $132 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $18 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $64 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Mar 27 $11 +$2 +20%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 21 $23 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Nov 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $39 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Nov 14 $11 $0 +3%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $16 $0 +1%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Oct 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Oct 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 09 $7 $0 -2%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Oct 09 $33 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 09 $5 $0 -0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 05 $6 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Oct 05 $1 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke in 2025? Oct 04 $5 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 04 $5 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 04 $17 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 02 $1 $0 -9%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 02 $24 $0 +1%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $2 $0 -6%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Sep 28 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 27 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in September? Sep 26 $15 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 25 $15 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 25 $21 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Turkish presid Sep 25 $15 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Sep 25 $16 −$1 -4%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 22 $28 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 81¢ $4 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $35 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $8 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $8 13h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $32 10d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $31 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $35 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $35 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $35 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $35 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $32 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $24 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $8 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $11 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $6 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $18 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $32 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $3 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $29 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $35 13d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $35 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $13 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $19 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $32 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $31 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $29 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $2 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $31 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $31 15d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $31 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.35 · official $31.35 (match) · 332 history records