Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:46:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B1 0xb193…fd4b other 71 markets active 0h ago coverage 591d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate24%17W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$465per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 84% −$28
politics 8% −$7
other 5% −$10
sports 1% +$44
crypto 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -20.1% -27.7% 0% 0% -20.8%
≤30d 19 -5.4% -14.4% 5% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 59 +9.1% -1.2% 22% 17% -8.8%
all 70 +7.7% -2.6% 24% 14% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.6% 14% -9.5%
10% -11.9% 14% -18.2%
15% -20.4% 13% -26.1%
20% -28.2% 10% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$2 · ×3.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

591d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses17 / 53
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)70 / 71
History coverage591d
Avg bet$465
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $150 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $61 $61 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $13 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $20 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $13 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $15 $0 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $134 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $19 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $24 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $19 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $20 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 02 $39 $0 +0%
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 31 $15 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 30 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 29 $18 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $17 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 23 $24 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $16 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 18 $101 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $104 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? May 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $223 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $109 $0 -0%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $5 +$8 +165%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $110 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $112 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 01 $107 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $110 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 01 $111 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 30 $103 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $111 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $113 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 25 $107 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 25 $112 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $105 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $104 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $115 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $107 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $106 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $115 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 16 $106 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 15 $107 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $108 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $116 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 14 $107 $0 -0%
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 13 $7 $0 -6%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $100 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Apr 11 $43 +$1 +3%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 10 $7 +$4 +48%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 10 $7 +$5 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $13 18m
Will Solana reach $150 in June? BUY No 100¢ $61 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 1h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $20 21h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $20 24h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $13 5d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 5d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $15 6d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $15 6d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $23 7d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $23 7d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 47¢ $9 8d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $19 11d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 11d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $24 12d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $24 12d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $19 13d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $19 13d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $20 14d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $20 15d
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $15 16d
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 16d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $23 17d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 17d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $18 18d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $18 18d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $17 23d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 23d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $24 24d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $24 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.22 · official $61.22 (match) · 257 history records