Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:06:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B1 0xb192…14dd weather 860 markets active 0h ago coverage 55d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 55d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$759 (+0%) realized +$755 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%841W / 13L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$361per market
Trades / day48.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3,630now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$71
14 days+$66
30 days+$380
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$496
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 123 +0.3% -9.3% 99% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 533 +0.4% -9.2% 98% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 854 -0.0% -9.6% 98% 0% -9.4%
all 854 -0.0% -9.6% 98% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 0% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$24 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.61 per $1 lost it wins $2.61
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$3,630
Realized+$755
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses841 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)854 / 860
History coverage55d ⚠
Avg bet$361
Trades / day48.8
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 854 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1,998 $1,999 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $498 $500 +$2 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $490 $490 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $280 $280 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $274 $275 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $85 $86 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $160 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 17 $447 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 84°F or higher on June 16? Jun 17 $1,017 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $74 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $649 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $131 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $207 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $946 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 16 Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $46 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $398 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $989 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $246 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $959 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $989 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 100°F or higher on June 15? Jun 16 $165 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $73 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $159 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1,697 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $88 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $136 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $64 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $61 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 16? Jun 15 $8 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1,223 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $48 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $381 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $899 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 15 $1,498 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $202 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C or below on June 14? Jun 15 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $639 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $285 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $53 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $33 13m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $3 21m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $3 25m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $129 57m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,998 59m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $43 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $56 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $176 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $42 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $299 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,629.92 · official $3,629.92 (match) · 3500 history records