Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:54:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb190…0b75 other 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 487d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate38%24W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 30% −$2
politics 25% +$1
other 22% −$1
sports 18% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% $0
weather 1% −$3
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.3% -9.3% 20% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 12 +0.7% -8.9% 42% 8% -9.2%
≤90d 49 -1.5% -10.9% 31% 4% -9.4%
all 64 -4.0% -13.1% 38% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 3% -9.7%
10% -21.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -29.0% 0% -26.3%
20% -36.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

487d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses24 / 40
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)64 / 67
History coverage487d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 81¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 83¢ 84¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $9 $0 -2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $12 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $39 $0 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $104 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $34 +$1 +4%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $37 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $3 $0 +11%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $34 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $34 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 -6%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 18 $33 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $34 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $34 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $31 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $3 $0 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 24 $32 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $31 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $108 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $32 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 20 $30 +$1 +5%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 14 $9 $0 +2%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 11 $2 $0 -4%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $30 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 10 $31 $0 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 09 $42 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $1 $0 -4%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $36 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $34 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $37 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 03 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $33 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $58 $0 -0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 31 $34 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 31 $34 $0 +0%
Will Amanda Anisimova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Mar 31 $38 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $37 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $34 $0 -0%
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Mar 29 $34 $0 -0%
Will Denmark win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Mar 28 $75 −$1 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 28 $34 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 27 $34 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Mar 26 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Mar 26 $34 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 13 $1 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $25 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 11h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $34 30h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $11 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $24 31h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $12 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $38 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $39 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $19 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $16 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $35 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 23¢ $16 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 22¢ $2 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 22¢ $14 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $25 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $10 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $35 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $35 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $35 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $29 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.45 · official $29.27 · 216 history records