Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:25:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb18e…5343 other 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 185d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$506 (-13%) realized −$512 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate28%14W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$229now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$163
7 days+$211
14 days−$453
30 days−$453
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$460
sports 19% −$62
tech 2% −$3
crypto 1% −$1
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +0.4% -9.2% 26% 26% +1.0%
≤30d 42 -11.6% -20.0% 26% 26% -19.4%
≤90d 42 -11.6% -20.0% 26% 26% -19.4%
all 50 -15.7% -23.7% 28% 24% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 24% -20.8%
10% -31.0% 22% -28.4%
15% -37.7% 22% -35.3%
20% -43.8% 18% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$110 vs −$57 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

185d coverage
Net worth$229
Realized−$512
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses14 / 36
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions5
Markets (closed)50 / 59
History coverage185d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 21¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 31¢ 34¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+8%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $23 $24 +$1 (+6%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 26 $31 −$2 -8%
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Jun 26 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $101 −$76 -75%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $31 −$30 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $21 +$104 +510%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$47 +93%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $51 +$52 +102%
Spread: Bosnia-Herzegovina (-4.5) Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Morocco (-3.5) Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $212 +$97 +46%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Jun 23 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -98%
England vs. Ghana: England 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
England leading at halftime? Jun 23 $212 −$210 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$142 +140%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $21 +$104 +510%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $303 −$300 -99%
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Spain? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $31 +$269 +874%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $708 +$534 +75%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $107 −$105 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $54 −$53 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $55 −$54 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $338 −$336 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $225 +$113 +50%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $111 −$109 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $121 −$120 -99%
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +52%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than 200k employees in 2025? Jan 21 $7 $0 +3%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the AFC South? Jan 05 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 02 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the AFC North? Jan 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jan 02 $43 +$1 +3%
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by Jan Jan 02 $35 −$5 -13%
Will Gold close between $4400 and $4500 at the end of 2025? Dec 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $100k first? Dec 30 $21 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $31 47m
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 56m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 57m
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $28 57m
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 59m
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) SELL Senegal 96¢ $175 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 3h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 3h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 17¢ $20 3h
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) BUY Senegal 55¢ $101 3h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 14¢ $7 24h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 17¢ $16 24h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) AND Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Spread: Japa BUY $3 27h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? AND Will Paraguay vs. Au BUY $5 27h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $31 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 27h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 49¢ $51 27h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 28¢ $20 27h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 27h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $101 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 27h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) SELL Bosnia and Herzegovina 86¢ $50 2d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina BUY $5 2d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina BUY $5 2d
Spread: Bosnia-Herzegovina (-4.5) BUY Bosnia-Herzegovina 10¢ $10 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 2d
Spread: Morocco (-3.5) BUY Morocco 21¢ $20 2d
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 45¢ $51 2d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $228.84 · official $228.85 (match) · 135 history records